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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (57238)	6/5/1998 1:30:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 186894

Gene - Re: "Applied" AMAT sunk even deeper about 2 years ago - and that was when I took the plunge and bought my first AMAT shares. Your scenario is correct. At some point in time (this is the tricky question) today's semiconductor equipment will become "obsolete" and not cost effective. To remain competitive, new equipment to make 300 mm wafers or 0.25/0.18 micron processes, copper technology, CMP and or damascene metallization, etc. will become the norm. Companies will have to upgrade or face declining competitiveness. This start of this cycle is not so easy to predict. But a good rule of thumb is to buy the best companies when no one else seems to want them. Applied is the best in its business and clearly, some yo-yos think it has no future. Paul