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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jef saunders who wrote (19812)	6/5/1998 9:15:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 94695

Jef; Well I missed that last bubble, and sitting on mostly cash, I watching interest rates with interest, they don't know were they want to recouople with the market yet. We have a lot of divergence in the market with both the amount of stocks below 200MA and the amount making new lows, so I'm not in a hurry to go long, even though she looks like she is putting in a new bottom, that has fooled me in the past. Back in Feb I went long and was 2 weeks late on getting in, but did real good till early April since then she has nickel and dime me with expense more than I've made. I don't like to focus on the short side, and don't play it much but several things still have me worried about the broad market going forward.(1) This latest news about oil getting together to jack up the price of crude may take time to impact us, but cheap crude and low interest rates is what has saved the market so far. (2) We have more index funds growing and coming on line, the way they have to trade with computer program trading to match the index has a negative effect on the market, they have to scalp expenses and the spread to stay with the index and the net effect is increased overhead on the stocks. (3) The bigger banks are holding more derivatives than assets one mess up could cause a chain reaction, also they will hide it until they can't any more and by the time we hear about it , it's too late. ----------- Jim