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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PaperChase who wrote (28841)	6/5/1998 10:54:00 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

PC, I think the recovery is too far out to predict because we have yet to see the decline. The chip cos, even the DRAM cos., are still building capacity. The shutdowns in Asia are a fake-out. They shut down older fabs that are making obsolete chips, you know, the kind MU still produces. <G> The same stories about shutdowns happened when we transitioned from 4 Mbit to 16 Mbit. What was not noticed was the increasing yields in 16 Mbit and the fact that each chip produced equalled four of the ones shut down at the old fabs. NEC has announced a large new fab in the USA for completion by 2002. They sure aren't slowing. The Taiwanese haven't even hiccuped and they have lots of cash. The Koreans are hurting a bit, but their govt. has promised to keep them afloat and we are funding their govt. So, right now, things are still pretty good for the equipment cos. Not great, as they were during the huge shortages, but certainly not slowdown level. Yet! However, the simple fact is that while the chippies are trying to be the first to produce .15 mu chips and systems on a chip, etc., they are still playing the same game. And when it blows up, the equipement cos. will have almost no new orders. That is when we see a bottom and start looking for the next peak. So far, we have folks spotting the next peak after moving down 1000 feet on the mountain. I don't think it works like that. MB