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Gold/Mining/Energy : Tri-Vision & The V-Chip -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Elliot Lepler who wrote (3029)6/5/1998 8:34:00 AM
From: Graham Dellaire  Respond to of 5743
 
Back of the envelope calculation from the market cap and earnings of one cent.

a reverse calculation.

Actual figure was to quote the prospectus: "Net income after taxes increased to $223,000 in fiscal 1996"

Which at the time was actually .007 cents a share (i.e. they had fewer shares).

So.... that is half of ACRI's gross last year.

Lepler relax, take a breath and try not to lose control.

The fact remains that TVL is a business that for more than a decade has turned a profit, be it as small as 10,000 (in 1995) to as much as 233,000. This was on infrared remotes and cable boxes sold to a smaller Canadian market and some Asian sales. I think the potential of selling several hundred thousand decoders and OEM sales of V-gis will push TVL up over 233,000 net easily.

Lepler again, if you don't like the thread blame TZ and Allen for dragging so much crap out. They constantly put down/slander TVL and always exclaim SoundView (Acacia) is the one CHIP and all will pay royalties, as soon as they get info to the contrary they start spitting fire.

So first you say this thread is disgusting without qualifying the culprits who make it so (unless you are insinuating I or DES are one as we are the first names you mention). Then you ask for additional help and news and info that you will gladly accept even from SCUM like us.

Well... I gave you the prospectus and the benefit of doubt. Now you are left with doubt.

Good investing.

G.



To: Elliot Lepler who wrote (3029)6/5/1998 9:31:00 AM
From: D.E. Shetland  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 5743
 
Elliot -calm down.

Use this site for the prospectus with all the numbers in it:

sedar.com

I have no idea what was spent on the CES show, but I would guess that to rent floor space for 4 days at the largest Consumer Electronic Show in the world, to produce marketing material, to send 3-4 people, employ another 2-3 for the presentations so you can do business dealings, and the like might cost in the area of $US 200,000 to 300,000. They also must have pitched in for some of the Samsung/TVL press conference too. So that's around C$ 300,000-400,000. Just my guess.

As for financials, I don't think you'll see a loss anywhere near the 1mil level for the year just ended. These guys are very cheap and know how to squeeze every nickle out of the busines --I'd bet they'll be pretty close to breakeven one way or another.

Past financials: (I think Graham used TZ's .01/share and the 50mil shares, but the .01 is rounded up and incorrect).
97 96 95 9mo98
Revenues: 6.7mil 6.2 7.1 5.4
EBITDA 1.4 1.3 1.4 .8
EBIT .33 .34 .02
Net Income .23 .22 .01 (.1)

The 98 9mos include 500,000 for CVC license and 300,000 in SGA for marketing and personnel related to the V-Chip launch.

In the past (w/o V-Chip expenditures) margins were extremely high and cash flow very strong.

Gross Margins exceed 20%. In 94 adn 93 they earned 300,000/yr.

I've always figured that the Qtr-Qtr numbers aren't that important until they start feeding the inventory pipeline. Once that starts, you can look at earnings. This situation is like a biotech company with a new product just getting distribution. You can guage market sizes, penetration rates, margins etc...(which was done in previous posts back in the 600 message range I think). But, it's all just guessing.

Here's some numbers you can work with and let us know what you get.
Just looking at decoders for the moment, no licensing or anything else.

Cost of Decoder US$30/unit
wholesale price US$45/unit
retail price US$80/unit

Plug you numbers in. How many will sell in first 12 months? What is total size of market, what will initial pentration rates be? Guess marketing expenses (fairly low), convert it all into C$ (1.40), subtract taxes and away you go.

I guess you can look at things like, what if 2-3 chain stores with 500 to 3,000 stores look to sell 30-1000 per store? What if a few cable companies offer it on a monthly charge (nice profits in it for them)? If there's 40mil households with children <12 having an average of 2.5 TV's per house, how many might want this? Women are the purchaser's of these things. I don't know the answers. I don't think much will happen till the encoding starts up for real. Then it's worth advertising and ramping up. Nonetheless, as you can see, with these margins, small sales amounts have a huge affect for the bottom line. Give us your answers.



To: Elliot Lepler who wrote (3029)6/5/1998 10:37:00 AM
From: Mac  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5743
 
Don't expect exponential share price growth until after Sept. 29

Even with signed and sealed contracts with the majors there are in
excess of 4.8 million warrants that the financiers are patiently waiting to roll over( personally I hope they don't get to complete
the task, who needs the dilution). This will certainly be a deterrent
for investors until the most later part of Sept. 98. Strategically,
the OEM's clock is ticking, and TVL is even more clearly the very best option at this time . Market share is looking more obvious as each day passes.