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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Tesorero who wrote (8734)	6/5/1998 10:42:00 AM
From: Samuel R Orr	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11555

You're on for the Pepsi. If my calculations are correct, and check me out, DELL will have to reach $169 before IDTI reaches $15 5/16. That may be a long wait in either case. I did read one review on Perham vrs. Rogers a week or so ago. TJ is a tiger, and since I worked for Cypress less than a decade ago, I spent many a meeting observing him in action. He's one of the brightest people I ever met, and broad across the entire spectrum. I liked and respected TJ immensely. But the article discussing them covered more than their personalities: it mentioned Cypress' decision to remain in SRAM(about 50% of its revenue) while IDTI diversified into different product lines including microprocessors. In terms of that decision, as a career engineer and marketing type, I prefer the IDTI choice. Those decisions, by the way, weren't totally made by either TJ or Len: other people in their companies count, too. My feeling is that TJ would be likely to go with his own reasoning more, and be swayed less by dissenting opinions, than would Len. TJ is sufficiently articulate and forceful to persuade you to go his way even when he's WRONG. Don't misunderstand where I'm coming from. I own stock in Cypress, too, which means I'm probably a candidate for the loony bin. In the long pull, I expect Cypress to also move into the black, but I believe IDTI will do it sooner. TJ is a master at handling PR and the press, though he can irritate people by his self-assurance. Len is more quiet and unlikely to blow his own horn. I thought he did a nice job when I caught him on CNBC a few months ago. Both are capable, but have different styles. As for Harold's and Rob's laments that as stockholders they can't get straight information from IDTI and Len, you're into a touchy area. Most companies have a notable reluctance to present the raw, unvarnished truth about their marketing plans, product introductions, and revenue expectations. If they do, it may come back to haunt them, and it provides far too much information to their direct competitors. On the other hand, they can't wander far from the truth or they risk a stockholder rebellion. The game is delicate, and everyone, including the honest ones, is forced to play it. It's called spin, and you need only look as far as the White House to see it done well. Being a bit less than candid seems often to pay off. Candor, and I had it in spades, was not one of my virtues. Mr. Clinton has impressive intellectual and interpersonal skills: candor is not one of them. Remember the Pepsi bet. Most likely, neither DELL nor IDTI will double, and we'll end up having a cup of Gatorade together as we feed peanuts to squirrels in some park.

To: David Tesorero who wrote (8734)	6/5/1998 11:56:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11555

I can't resist. I'll take the IDTI v. Dell Pepsi Challenge - my bet is that IDTI doubles before Dell. I think Dell will continue to ride the wave of the "build to order" direct marketing business model that Michael Dell authored and helped to make successful. A part of that strategy that has become very important over the past few years has been to align Dell with the "Intel Inside" and Pentium brand name mantras. Along with a great tract record for delivery and service made possible by a streamlined inventory and finished goods system, that helped tremendously in Dell's moves into corporate America. What started out as a company that targeted the individual user and SOHO market has turned into a worthy competitor for mid-large size corporations and servers and workstations as well as desktops and portables. Without the connection to Intel that would have been much more difficult if not impossible. IBM, Compaq, HP and others all have been improving their efforts to do "just in time" assembly and have partnered with TechData and other mega distributors for what's called "channel assembly" of brand name computer and network systems. Although that effort has yet to come stem Dells growth, their are now more players vying for market share using a similar business model. What Dell is counting on is that Intels' next generation Celeron parts will be cheap enough and have high enough performance to beat back the clone competitors. If the difference in total system cost is only $100, then Dell may be able to stay successful with Intel only. Still, I have to think that this strategy will run out of steam if, as it appears to be likely, AMD, NSM and, maybe baby, IDTI, hit the market with quantities of lower cost with comparable performance "Super Socket 7" Microsoft supported 3DNow parts. And increasingly, AMD and others will have parts that will attach the portable, server and workstations segments of the market where Dell has recently been growing the fastest. If Dell doubles before IDTI, the Pepsi is on me.