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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (5704)	6/5/1998 1:05:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 10921

Ian: excellent post. Clear thinking, well stated. This thread (and the AMAT thread) is far more usefull than the Intel thread, which is crammed full of personal attacks and paranoia.

To: Ian@SI who wrote (5704)	6/5/1998 2:01:00 PM
From: Mason Barge	Respond to of 10921

<<analysts' opinions, not completely reliable in good times, are exceedingly untrustworthy in bad times>> I agree completely. One of the big investment services ran an analysis of sell-side analysts' recommendations vs. subsequent performance. The conclusion was that they are a reasonable predictor for "sell" recommendations, but completely worthless (statistically) for "buy" recommendations. Personally, I find the sell recommendations pretty unreliable, too, as they usually come after bad news is out and the price has already plummeted. We have certainly just seen a textbook example in this sector, with all the "buy" and "strong buy" ratings that came out in November-January. In fact, the lack of a host of sell recommendations is one indication that we haven't yet hit the bottom. On the other hand, I do keep an open ear for industry analysts, even if I don't agree with what they're saying. I will always remember Brett Hodess correctly identifying the problems at Cymer, and being hooted down as a criminal on the various stock message boards.