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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (9680)	6/5/1998 12:24:00 PM
From: Lazlo Pierce	Respond to of 18691

The fact that MOT went up today is unlike the ETEC or the other misses. It is sheer madness. MOT was in a position to be the leader in one of the most important sectors there is. They allowed it to slip through their fingers, and messed up bigtime. The reason they messed up was (is) MANAGEMENT. Pure and simple. Until MOT gets rid of ALL the main honchos, and brings in compretent talent, this stock will languish. On the other hand, once they bring in new people, the stock WILL recover. I will short this stock on this pop. It will go into the 40s, and will wait till they bring in new mgmnt to cover! (Edit Just started a small short in MOT @ 52 1/8) This may go up to 55 or so, I don't think so, but... it will be in the mid 40s soon. Dave

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (9680)	6/5/1998 1:49:00 PM
From: Allan F	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

RE MINI Quick look(5 min) at the SEC filings shows they are debt heavy with large fixed capital costs. They buy used shipping containers, and then lease them out. Seems their occupancy rates are falling, and their debt ratio is climbing. I would say the Asian contagion may be having an effect on their ability lease. As with all rental businesses occupancy rate is the key, when that goes its game over. Comments? -Allan Funny, I couldn't find any PR's explaining why the stock shot up in Jan, Mar, or Apr?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (9680)	6/5/1998 3:15:00 PM
From: Mama Bear	Respond to of 18691

Roger and All: I do believe I've found me a little gem: IVIP IVI Publishing IVIP has been with us for about 5 years, and has managed to lose about $80 million in that timeframe. IVIP has recently decided to make itself over as an Internet company, and will distribute health and wellness advice over the Internet. Recognizing that it is an utter failure at "electronic publishing of health and medical information in interactive multimedia formats, with focus on the cable television, CD-ROM & online interactive media markets. For the FY ended 12/31/97, revenues fell 60% to $3.8M. Net loss applicable to Common rose 35% to $14M. Results reflect lower unit sales as the Company shifted its focus to its online efforts, partially offset by lower development and marketing costs." (quote from Market Guide) they are reinventing themselves as OnHealth Corporation pending a shareholder vote, and moving from Minnesota to Washington State. Total shares outstanding is 10.14 million, but an S-1a was filed with the SEC on 6/1 which will add over 2 million shares to the public float. TTM PSR is 22.01 (at 6/share), and TTM earnings of (1.64)/per share. About the only caution I can see is that it will be an "Internet" stock. Any comments welcome. Trading at 6 3/8 x 1/2 right now. Barb

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (9680)	6/5/1998 4:18:00 PM
From: Lazlo Pierce	Respond to of 18691

Roger, nice article on MOT from Cramer. This is what MOT really meant. ************************************* Wrong! Rear Echelon Revelations: What Motorola Should Have Said By James J. Cramer 6/5/98 7:55 AM ET Oh, I get it. Once again, it's Asia that's hurting Motorola (MOT:NYSE). Handset sales aren't coming through because of the poor economies over there. And semiconductors? Well, of course there is a slowdown. Telephone equipment -- oh, yeah, tough business, with everybody feeling the pinch, especially in world-wide wireless. Guess we got to sell everybody from Lucent (LU:NYSE) to Ericsson (ERICY:NYSE ADR) on this news. Should send all of tech down. Hold it!! Wait just one darn minute. Can we take a moment and peer through Motorola's litany of excuses and rationalizations? Can we look at the release Motorola should have issued instead of its wrongheaded blame-the-world scenario, the same scenario it has been using for a half-dozen quarters now? SCHAUMBURG, Ill.--Motorola once again screwed up its quarter after a series of miscues both at home and abroad that has left it well behind handset-and-systems competitors Nokia (NOKA:NYSE ADR) and Ericsson as well as telco equipment maker Lucent in the largest, fastest growing market in the world, the market for communications equipment. "We haven't been able to execute a whit since [George Fischer, now president of Eastman Kodak (EK:NYSE)] left here, and this quarter wasn't any different," Christopher Galvin, who ostensibly runs Motorola, said. "We are also completely incompetent at forecasting things around here because of our unwillingness to blame ourselves and come to grips with what is ailing this company. "We chose not, however, to blame weakness overseas because, frankly, our competitors simply haven't seen it happen, so it's got to be something we are doing," Galvin continued. "In fact, they are hitting the cover off the ball. "The problems are not just overseas," he said. "We haven't done a good job winning orders in our own backyard, giving up great business to both regional carriers and the new competitive local exchanges, even though the Startac is a pretty nifty product," Galvin continued. "That's just our crummy execution, I am afraid." Semiconductors? "What can we say? We have been wildly overoptimistic that demand was going to continue and we were just kidding ourselves, in retrospect. We didn't have a clue how bad things were out there. Wow, have we been clobbered," he said. "We're losing share everywhere we compete. "Most disconcerting," Galvin told a gathering of 15,000 people he had to ax to cut costs, "was our inability to do anything but hype Wall Street about our numbers being up again next year. We have been completely unrealistic about how bad things are here and we have routinely guided semiconductor analysts toward much higher levels than were at all possible. We've been unrealistic here for a very long time and have done a ton of accounting shenanigans with our subsidiaries and customers in order to even make these pathetic numbers. Look at all of these contracts with Iridium (IRIDF:Nasdaq ADR) and figure out if you can make any sense of them. I can't." In conclusion, Galvin said he was going to surrender management to somebody from Lucent or Nokia or Ericsson who could figure out how to get things moving again. "And most important, we are not going to blame world-wide conditions or have you believe that the tech sector is even weaker than it is. Those who sell other stocks because of our problems probably don't realize that it is our own poor execution that others are feasting off of to begin with. In short, we don't have a clue." End. Don't bother to contact investor relations: He's gone, too! Ahh, now wouldn't that be a breath of fresh air?