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Technology Stocks : Altera -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug who wrote (1741)	6/8/1998 5:22:00 AM
From: Stu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2389

I hold a fair amount of ALTR but no XLNX. I just bought another 100 share of ALTR last week at 36.75. I will continue to average down. The stock seems to be at a bottom. In January, the slide that ran for the last half of the previous year seemed to end. Since then, the stock has traded in a decent range. I think that the stock is fairly valued at this level. As I said before, at the low estimate of $1.51 and a P/E of 23, the stock should trade around 34.75. I think that a P/E of 23 might be a little optimistic, but I wouldn't see the stock trading below 30. If you are thinking about a mid to long-term short, I think that you missed your chance last year. I don't see this stock heading lower. Vader makes a good point on the XLNX thread about the program trading. I don't know how valid the point is, but it makes a lot of sense. As for XLNX, I don't see it trading below 30 either. I have always thought that XLNX was a lower risk than ALTR. I don't think that ALTR will sweep away market share from XLNX. I also don't think that XLNX has any advantage over ALTR. Up till now, the race has been fairly even. Earnings for this sector will be flat, but I think that that has been priced in. I only hope that these companies don't miss the estimates. They already have weak support among analysts. Since there is so much institutional ownership, any weakness in earnings will be punished. Don't expect good news until the end of the year. Hopefully, it will be a good Christmas. Stu