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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bucky89 who wrote (48135)	6/5/1998 2:39:00 PM
From: NJ777	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Article on Ascend on Telecommunications web site. www.telecoms-mag.com.

To: bucky89 who wrote (48135)	6/5/1998 3:11:00 PM
From: gbh	Respond to of 61433

bucky89, you've given some well thought out arguments, as usual. now let me take a crack. "...Lucent doesn't even even know how to spell IP..." I love this one. Had me LOL. But its obviously just a sound bite (a good one too). But if the street really believed this I doubt LU would be trading where they are. There is no question CSCO is king of packet switching and will remain so as long as they convince the world the BFRs are the way to go. I think they will continue to succeed with this until they have world class IP over ATM, at which time they start evangelizing ATM with the same vigor they do now with routers. Who have they bought which will give them a presence in the carrier-class data market? Not Livingston, and not Yurie. Livingston is concentrated in a niche market for remote access servers, and Yurie does ATM for enterprise customers. No question Livingston, as a stand-alone could not compete in the carrier market. But, remember that LU bought Livingston pre-PM4. I suspect when LU did DD on the deal, the PM4 was the primary reason they bought Livingston. The PM4 is absolutely carrier class. True, no customers yet. But a true MAX/TNT and AS5800 competitor, technically. Add sales LU's access into the carrier, and they are now a player. LU by definition, is on the short list of suppliers. Livingston never had a prayer of getting on that short list. Now they have product and access, and much cheaper than buying ASND. Also, LU has started making additions to this product per their last IP switching announcement. I'd say they are committed to Livingston at this point. Don't confuse Yurie's ATM concentrator, with an ATM switch. This only competes with ASND's SA line of concentrators. Total overlap. Come Oct 1, Lucent will have a $30B shopping budget, and they could easily swallow Ascend. It would be so much easier and less risky to buy the technology and market presence outright. Where does the $30B number come from? I agree with the second statement. I just can't convince myself that ASND is their guy given all the overlap it would create. I see nothing unique about the Packetstar switch. I agree, other than perhaps its stated bandwidth puts its near the head of the class. Also, it would perhaps complement the GRF line at the high end, but ASND has stated publicly that a higher end GRF is due late this year, early next. More overlap. The GRF has already been through this shakeout, and is now competing head-to-head against Cisco's BFR. Not very successfully, but neither is anyone else. BTW the current GRF's are woefully wanting for bandwidth. As far as Yurie, all the panelists were shaking their heads on this. Pretty much everyone agrees that Lucent screwed up and overpaid. I think they will realize this sooner or later. No one can rationalize $1B for a through away company, given that all these panelists still think LU will buy ASND. Also, they put the head Yurie guy in charge of carrier networking. I think this purchase was the nail in the coffin concerning an LU/ASND merger. My feeling is that LU will develop ATM switching in house, or buy a less expensive company than ASND with les product overlap, maybe FORE, or even (don't gag) GDC. Gary