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To: Gregg Powers who wrote (11191)	6/5/1998 4:27:00 PM
From: rhet0ric	Respond to of 152472

This is a little simplistic, but I see it as three blocks: Europe, Asia, and the Americas. Europe is definitely going to go with a GSM-favorable 3G. The Americas will definitely go with a CDMA-favorable 3G. These are both foregone conclusions, and will be determined by politics. However, (most of) 3G Asia is up for grabs, and there are wide variances in potential backwards compatibility for European and American 3G. To put a scorecard on it, I would say that whichever side gets a favorable standard in 2 or 3 out of the 3 blocks wins. If Asia chooses backward compatibility with both GSM and IS-95, I guess that would be counted as a win for Qualcomm, given its time to market advantage with GSM-overlay and IS-95C. My view is that if negotiating its IPR will give it 2 or 3 out of 3, then Qualcomm should consider it. I don't think IS-95 is likely to get orphaned in either case. Not in the Americas, no, but it could be orphaned in large parts of Asia, and could fail ever to gain a foothold in Europe. You also appear to be presuming that W-CDMA is somehow superior to IS-95C. Technically, no (actually I have no idea, but I take this thread's word for it). But if W-CDMA becomes the standard in 2 out of 3 blocks, then in a way it is superior. So assuming Ericsson gets its way, the European community will get to wait two to three years for a proprietary CDMA standard that is no better than they could have now...but ERICY would have probably killed Qualcomm's efforts to overlay IS-95 style CDMA in Europe. That, and Asia. If Ericsson gets a non-IS-95 compatible 3G accepted in Asia, then GSM will slaughter IS-95 in the short and medium term there, and be on near-equal footing in the long term. I'm betting on Qualcomm, by the way, for the rather cynical, realpolitikal reason that I think the U.S. will use its political pull in the Americas and Asia to make sure that the 3Gs there are favorable to its home companies. rhet0ric

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (11191)	6/6/1998 9:44:00 AM
From: Gregg Powers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Ericsson's God complex I typed the following metaphor from the road on Friday and for some reason it never was posted. Please excuse me if I have slipped a mental cog. Does anybody remember the Star Trek movie where Spock's loony half brother highjacks the Enterprise and forces it to travel to the center of the universe. Here they are supposed to find the planet Shakari, which is the Vulcan equivalent of heaven, inhabited as one might expect, by the Vulcan equivalent of God. Upon their arrival, Kirk, Bones, Spock and the loony brother take the shuttle craft down the planet where, after some wandering about, they find a suitably grandiose area to meet "God". After an appropriate interlude, "God" makes his appearance and, at first blush, appears quite-godlike. However, in due course, "God" commands the travelers to bring the Enterprise closer to the planet, so that he may "join" with it. At this juncture, in perhaps the best line of the movie and in classic melodramatic Shatner fashion, Kirk queries, "Uh, excuse me, by whyyyy does Godddd neeed a starship". Bones has a cow. But, Kirk persists, "whyyyy does Goddd neeeeed a starship". It was a very good question. Fast forward to the Ericsson/Qualcomm debate. Can anybody explain to me why "God" needs Qualcomm's participation in its proposed W-CDMA standard? Think about it! Have a nice weekend everybody! Best regards, Gregg

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (11191)	6/8/1998 11:08:00 PM
From: DaveMG	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

Gregg, I've gone back and reread your posts from last week in light of todays press statements: "You also appear to be presuming that W-CDMA is somehow superior to IS-95C. It isn't. That's kind of the whole point. So assuming Ericsson gets its way, the European community will get to wait two to three years for a proprietary CDMA standard that is no better than they could have now...but ERICY would have probably killed Qualcomm's efforts to overlay IS-95 style CDMA in Europe. All of which points up a major weakness in the Ericsson strategy... If QC holds firm and refuses to license its IPR on unfavorable terms, the IS-95 community can continue to sell its product worldwide while ERICY's proposed standard could wind up tied up in litigation for the foreseeable future. Ericsson would have blessed CDMA, and admitted its superiority to TDMA-based GSM, only to find itself incapable of selling products based on its proposed standard or spending years trying to circumvent QC's IPR." Don't you think ERICY is aware of this weakness in it's strategy?Do you really think they are just trying to get Q IPR at favorable terms?.It seems their behavior is more aggressive than that.They seem absolutely determined not to allow backw compatibility to IS95. I'm convinced that there is a more complicated subtext than royalties,that this is much more than face saving. Would an IS95 overlay be highly desireable in Europe today?Is GSM so close to the end of it's rope? BTW thanks for answering my chip rate question the other day.How do you find the time to be such a presence on the thread? Dave