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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nemer who wrote (3271)	6/5/1998 7:13:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9523

anolan, Re: <<->At this rate it's been about 1 death notice every 4 - 5 days.IMHO, since the media floodlights are on Viagra, the rumble will soon turn into a roar, considering the abundance of cardiovascular disease in the ED population. And we haven't even started to address the ocular side effects.That's coming next, >> ======================================================= I will use your format to try and answer it: (Your) question, and ( my ) answer: --------------------------------------- Question: 1) death notice every 4-5 days ----- ....given the unknown ( but probably mutually agreed on relatively elderly) ages of the universe taking Viagra ---- what you expect the deaths per million (for a lack of better amount) to be ? Answer: It is EXTREMELY hard to predict right now hard, because we only have about 14 alleged cases over 2 mill people so far to extepolate from; this sample is still too small. ( I am assuming, 200,000 scrips/wk X 8 weeks = 2,000,000 Viagra users so far ).That's 7 per 1,000,000 people ). It's been estimated that there are 20-40 mill impotent men in the US. If they all buy Viagra , then it would be 7X20 and 7X40 equals to a low of 140 and a high of 280 people. However you have to factor in that many will go to the higher 100 mg dose where the number of deaths may rise, by 50%? To ?210 - ?420. An unknown is how many of these deaths are due to Viagra nad how many to sex. An unknown is how many deaths are due to Viagra, as yet unrecognized *Rowever also that it took only ~ 240 alleged deaths over 2 years to force Redux off the market. --------------------------------------- Question: << 2) floodlights --- .... could I respectfully submit usage of the term spotlight and a good example would be the spotlight on WLA which today caused a drop in price due to the exposure of but a single death from a clinical trial for disease not indicated to be treatable at the local doctor level, but only in a Phase II ( I think it was Phase II, but no matter) >> Answer: OK, spotlight; although it does feel like floodlights some times, a real show, gg. WLA is a good example; ~ 25 point drop in one day as I remember it. Their float was smaller though. ------------------------------------------ Question: << 3) abundance of cv disease in the ED population. ..... I agree, in theory, but do you have any solid basis for the assumption ? >> Answer: This is easy. There are ZERO assumptions here. Over the next 12 months you will be informed ad nauseam of the large presence of CV disease in the ED population. It would be impossible here to quote you the literature.If you just include the diabetics, by the time their neuropathy and Ed develops, they are far advanced with Diabetes, and are a walking time bomb. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Question: << 4) the ocular effects, that's coming next. .... I agree, this is my most nagging concern, and unfortunately, time alone will tell.>> Answer: I agree, TA

To: Nemer who wrote (3271)	6/5/1998 9:47:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9523

TA Reference Check: Trying to convince TA that he is ever wrong is an exercise in frustration. Be very thankful that TA is not your investment advisor and ,even more important, that he is not your physician. TA is a great example of how a stock portfolio can bias a medical practice. Personally, I believe physicians should not hold stock positions in any Pharma company...and many don't. Although TA thinks he a medical and investing genius, his posts and past history speak for themselves. Here's an example of TA's insight into the ED market and why he feels the need to personally bring Vivus back from its current 2,300 weekly Rx level and 2% share of the ED market down from 70% before Viagra's approval. On January 26, 1998, VVUS reached an intermediate high of 15 13/16. Since that date ,VVUS never has gone higher and has sunk to a low of 6 1/8 reached yesterday before bouncing to 7 15/16 today. Just check out the TA "wisdom" and "I'm a doctor arrogance" as shown by his January VVUS investments and posts: January 23, 1998 Bought VVUS @13.5 www3.techstocks.com January 26, 1998: Bought VVUS @14.7 www3.techstocks.com January 28,1998:Bought VVUS @14.25 and calls www3.techstocks.com January 29, 1998 www3.techstocks.com January 29, 1998: Predicts VVUS will be at 30-40 due to the Ad campaign "Impotence is Optional" www3.techstocks.com January 30, 1998 Bought VVUS @14.5 www3.techstocks.com Bottom line; Would you ever trust TA to help you with your investments? Would you ever trust TA to treat your sister or child for an illness? If the answer is no to either question, you should just skip over his posts. Have PFun! BigKNY3 PS Full disclosure: I do not hold any position in VVUS...but TA will probably accuse me of being a hated "short" nevertheless. I hold long positions in several Big Pharma companies including PFE, WLA, MRK, AMGN, LLY and BMY. I have owned PFE now for 25 years.