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Technology Stocks : BEA Systems (BEAS) - Undiscovered Growth Stock -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Saulamanca who wrote (485)	6/5/1998 11:26:00 PM
From: treetopflier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2477

Shouldn't be a problem to service this debt. Much better than dilution. About time they unveiled the Top End purchase price though. Seems $150M is more than enough. Another acquisition in the works? Let's see, what else might Compaq be willing to part with? Do I hear Non-Stop components for sale? Are there some other European OEMs with TP monitors that they would trade for cash to improve sagging bottom lines? NCR posted a $55M gain on the Top End sale and got an opportunity to part with 65 talented, expensive developers. Good for them and even better for BEAS. Hope they can retain them all. Tough to be a component software developer in a hardware company -- glamour jobs are in companies like BEAS where you ARE the company. Could we see another quick push to upper 20's? Volatility here is amazing! Lots of speculation without understanding. Tight stops. I fear that every NASDAQ hiccup will push BEAS back into the low 20's high teens until we get Q2 and Q3 numbers. Especially as some of the other speculative SW houses get kicked for missing their quarters, e.g. MANU, not that MANU and BEAS are in the same category, but both are considered highly speculative. There isn't enough information to sustain upper 20's yet, but there will be. The day traders are making a killing here, making the moves even more pronounced. At BEAS growth rate, and with additional acquisitions we could see $600M or better next fiscal, with an improved margin as they get their distribution channels in place. Without further dilution that should yield at least net income of $75M+. BEAS is positioned to outperform MSFT near term in earnings per share growth. Should be able to double a $20 position over the next 18 months and be sitting at a reasonable PE to boot. Look for at the analysts that have spent time with the company -- all strong buys and relatively consistent forecasts, indicating good coaching by BEAS financial staff. Will BEAS be an independent company by 2000? At a projected market capitalization of around $4B by then they certainly won't have achieved an untouchable rank. Let's see -- who would benefit most from a lock on the 'open systems' transaction processing monitor marketplace and a nifty DB/platform independent, JAVA based set of object oriented transactional development tools for the internet/intranet? Microsoft - NOT -- has its own strategy and won't be buying anyone with a market share of its own anytime soon -- remember Quicken? A hardware company, e.g. Sun -- probably not and would mess up BEAS OEM agreements, e.g. NCR. IBM - already has Encina and CICS. Compaq -- too busy digesting recent purchases and no strategy to which BEAS would fit. Computer Associates -- NO -- they only buy the walking dead at fire sale prices. Sybase -- no $$$, same for Informix. Oracle -- BINGO -- Larry wake up! In 18 months when you figure it out BEAS will cost you $5-6B. You could have it today for $2B and everyone would be better off. You could integrate it with your application tools suite and you would actually be able to compete with IBM instead of just ignoring them, hoping no one will notice that they keep growing, and growing and growing... You'd be able to build and grow the most complex heterogenous applications imaginable, and they would really work. Moreover, you could sell applications that run in any configuration, provide good response time and are easy to maintain. You'd have client/server, NCA, Tuxedo -- nah... makes too much sense. Although, best of all, you could charge Peoplesoft more for using it... think about it. Of course, you could just rely on your own middleware folks to build it all. You know, the same ones that didn't even have a test lab four years ago -- yes, I was there. Get real. Fly low, sell high...