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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (19908)	6/6/1998 11:47:00 AM
From: coug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, I have been lurking here for a few days and if I may interject my opinion, I agree with you that the next week or two will tell the tale. On a short term basis (15') count the waves of the thurs- fri rally, five, with the 3rd the longest. Neg. diverg. on rsi, stoch momentum, for the final late fri afternoon upsurge. So my best guess I'm looking for a retest of 1080 on spx by tuesday sometime. I'm not sure its going to hold. If it doesn't, we go to 980 area and and everyone will, including myself, will have 20/20 hindsight and point out the nice rounded top. If we go up, I can point out a high flag from April-June, although I don't like the roundness to the top from mid April-mid May. As Always, I'm talking my position, and Good Luck... the Coug

To: William H Huebl who wrote (19908)	6/6/1998 12:46:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Bill; I think so too, at least I hope so, I'm sure tired of the knee jerk stuff. If we do go on up for a spell I don't think it's made the correction it needed to make to be considered healthy. There are some termites eating away at it, and even the downgraded earnings could turn out to be to optimistic come 1999. This great Titanic could hit an ice berg, and they took out the water tight doors when they changed the market triggers to 10/20/30. And like the Titanic if this thing ever goes to abandon ship status , there are not near enough life boats, and you can bet not many of the smaller investors will be able to get out, employee pension funds will be very hard hit. They will do every thing they can to prevent this until they can get their hands on the Social Security fund. There is a big push and a lot of behind closed door pressure being put on Congress to put S.S. into the market. I sure don't like the smell of it. -------------------- The British increase in interest rates could also be the ignored warning about icebergs in our path. Old money that thrives off interest rates and the spread in them is damm near frantic to get interest rates back up. ------------------------- And I've warned about the rapid increase in both derivatives, and the index trading that is maintained by huge computer program trading systems. While index funds show low expense and not much turn over on their reports, that is a slight of hand and he huge short & cover ratio is not reported as turn over, nor is the spread expense reported as expense, as far as they are concerned. But the rapid turn over of shares ( even if it's just shorts shorting to others covering ) adds up to a not so visible overhead on the paper itself, which is now more than ever traded as a commodity. --------------------------- It may not happen soon but without some better regulation this Titanic will hit it's iceberg. Jim