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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (3307)	6/6/1998 11:29:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9523

The Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board. Invest only after conducting your own research. Have PFun! BigKNY3 __________________________________________________________ The Peabody Report: 6/06/98 Peabody Model Trend Prediction Based on historical PFE patterns, the Peabody Model predicts the following trend direction: PFE reached a Peabody Valley of 100 3/8 last Monday and is headed higher to a new Peabody Peak of 119.75 by July 15, 1998. Commentary PFE dipped one point below the pending Valley and then quickly reversed. Does the market maker read the PFEr Board? Since it is based primarily on historical trends and Mr. Peabody "gut feels", the Peabody Model should always be placed in context of the market environments and anticipated news. As evidenced by the mythical Peabody Portfolio (see section below), the Peabody Model works particularly well for PFE investors with a "buy, hold, and buy more at the Valley" investing strategy. New or pfuture PFErs could consider investing 50% immediately and investing the remainder at near Peabody Valleys. ......................................PFE.........................% Chg from...............# Days .....................................Date.........Price.......Last Price (6/05/98......From Today Last Peabody Valley: * .... 6/01/98 ....100.38.......... -7.4% .................-5 Last Peabody Peak:......... 5/20/98.....114.19..........+5.4% .................-17 * Pending Forecasted Next Peak ......7/15/98......119.75..........+13.6%............... 39 Forecasted Next Valley....................... 98.00 (If Model is Wrong) ______________________________________________ Peabody Short-term PForecasts Peabody Short-Term PForecast (5/31/98): PFE: 104.81; DJ: 8,900:PFE will benefit from good news from the AUA meeting. Watch for a shaky market to effect all stocks. Gut feel: Expect some profit-taking to 102 and then a strong move pass 108+. Evaluation of Peabody PForecast: Be afraid, be very afraid...Another big thumbs up! Peabody PForecast Record (64 weeks): 40-23 (63%) _________________________________________________________ Peabody Short-Term PForecast (6/06/98): PFE: 108.38; DJ: 9,038: Expect a dip with a decline in the holiday shortened reporting of Viagra RXs during the week ending 5/29/98. More roller coaster action can be expected with PFE still heading higher to a Peak.... near the reporting of second quarter earnings (July 15, 1998). It's going to be a great ride. Mark this down: Within two months you will be kicking yourself on why you did not buy PFE @ 100. ___________________________________________ Peabody Portfolio (+88.7%) PFE @ 108.38 In the last five weeks, the Peabody Portfolio has added 800 PFE shares to the mythical Peabody Portfolio. The Peabody Portfolio consists of Mr. Peabody's 18 aggressive PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996 . To add flexibility to the Portfolio, blocks of 50-200 shares can be purchased at each recommendation. To date, the Portfolio has purchased 3,400 PFE shares at an average price of $59.98 (only 3.5% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys). ________________________________________ # PFE Shares Purchased:.......... 3,400 Average Price of Purchases:.......$59.98 Total Costs: ...............................$195,238 Total Market Value:.....................$368,475 Total Potential Profit:...................$173,238 Date............#..........Purchase Purchased...Shares...Price 8/14/96:..... 200 ........$36.38 10/25/96:....200 .........$40.44 12/4/96:......200..........$41.69 12/12/96:.....200.........$40.50 12/16/96:.....200.........$40.44 12/31/96:....200..........$41.50 1/2/97:........200 ..........$40.94 1/28/97: ......200..........$42.38 2/28/97:.......200...........$45.69 3/24/97:.......200...........$44.88 3/27/97:.......200...........$42.81 3/31/97:........200..........$42.56 8/8/97:..........200..........$55.13 4/16/98:........200...........$97.00 4/27/98:........200...........$113.00 5/7/98:..........200...........$107.50 5/15/98:.........100..........$105.00 5/27/98 :........100 .........$101.75 Total:............3,400...........$59.98 ____________________________________________ Suggested PFE Buying Levels The following suggested PFE buying levels are based on The Peabody Model. The aggressive buying price level is used in adding shares to The Peabody Portfolio. However, depending upon market conditions an immediate purchase could be made at any time: Aggressive PFE buying levels:..................$98 to $102 Conservative PFE buying levels: ...............$94 to $99 ________________________________________ Future Actions That Will Effect PFE Trends Viagra Rx and sales trends:.................... Every Monday, throughout 1998 News of Viagra adverse reactions and drug interactions: .............................Throughout 1998 FDA review of Zeldox: ............................. June, 1998 2nd Qt PFE earnings:...............................July 15, 1998 Launch of Zeldox:.....................................Summer, 1998 European approval of Viagra:......................September, 1998 ED news in the media: .............................Throughout 1998 _______________________________________________ Peabody V-Files Analysts' estimates of Viagra 1998 sales average $576 million, a 51% increase over the original estimates made prior to approval. At the current specification rate, it is estimated that Viagra is selling at a rate of $90 million per month. Accordingly, a conservative 1998 Viagra sales forecast is $810 million. ..............................Current......... Original ..............................1998 Est.......1998 Est ..............................(Billions)........(Billions)....Comments Gruntal....................$1.000.......................Peak annual sales of $4.5 B Everen.......................$0.850......................$1.4 B (1999) Mehta Partners..........$0.800 Nation Banc .............$0.800......$0.400......$1.9M in 99,Up to $6B in peak year Salomen Smith Barney* $0.655...................$2.1 B (1999), $5.750 B (2002) Schroder...................$0.635.....................$1.2 B (1999),$3B (2002) Merrill Lynch.............$0.625.....$0.350.......$1.3 B ( 1999) Bear Stearns.............$0.600.... $0.400........$1.2 B (1999) PaineWebber.............$0.600......$0.600........$1.2 B (1999) HKS & Co .................$0.500.....$0.500........Estimate will be grossly revised Standard & Poor's.......$0.400.....$0.400........$3.0 B by 2002 Hambrecht & Quist.....$0.345.....$0.345........ $.700 B (1999) Deutsche Morgan........$0.300.....$0.300 Gerard Klauer............. $0.300....$0.300...........$788 M (1999) AG Edwards................$0.225....$0.225............. Reaching $1.0 B in 3-4 years Morgan Stanley.................................................$3-5 B (Peak) OrbiMed............................................................$1 B by 2002 ABN-AMBRO......................................................$1.8 B (2001) Americal...........................................................$10 B over 5 years Cowen..............................................................$2.5 B +(2001) Goldman Sachs ...............................................$1.5 B by 1999 Average......................$0.576......$0.382.....+50.7% Revised original estimate _________________________ PFE Splits PFE has split three times in the last ten years ( 2/91, 6/95, and 6/97). The Wayback Machine indicates that PFE has announced a 2-1 split if PFE trade above 80 for 90 consecutive days. In the January, 1998 survey of 22 PFErs, only 43% felt that PFE will split in 1998. At the Annual Meeting on April 23, 1998, PFE management stated they will consider requesting additional authorized shares from shareholders later this year. Bottom line, the next PFE split will be 3-1 in the Fall, 1998 or March, 1999. ________________________________________________