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Technology Stocks : THREE FIVE SYSTEM (TFS) - up from here? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: michael c. dodge who wrote (1689)6/6/1998 9:10:00 PM
From: Noblesse Oblige  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3247
 
Hi Michael...

Interesting call, for a couple of reasons.

First, the company made a great point out of indicating that it saw an important part of its future in digital handsets. Moreover, it confirmed that products will be announced in July. Obviously, there is no point announcing a product that isn't ready to ship in size, so parts suppliers...including TFS...will have to be shipping beginning some time this month.

(Parenthetically, I have just ordered for myself the new AT&T One Price plan for my cellular use. For those of you not aware of it, AT&T is offering a national service, calls everywhere in the country with digital and/or analog origination, depending on location, at $90.00 a month for 600 minutes. Moreover, every call is a local call, and there are no roaming charges. And, if your cellphone use is greater, you can actually get a program that will allow 1400 minutes for $ 150.00, or just under eleven cents per minute. At this price, there is good question why you even would have a hard line phone.

BTW, I have ordered a phone from AT&T, and though you can get an Ericsson or Nokia phone, MOT has no presence yet in the program. And, though I ordered my phone over a week ago, it is on *allocation*. Demand for the new systems is incredible, and MOT will get its fair share as soon as it has appropriate product available.)

Secondly, however, MOT has indicated that it will be announcing shortly the changes that will result in some sort of consolidation of the communications businesses which heretofore have been run as private fiefdoms. I think the market is worried about the impact on TFS, but as I have indicated, the portion of the business that might affect us (purchasing and allocation of LCD materials) has already been consolidated. In short, the market is *overly* concerned.

Enjoy what is left of your weekend.



To: michael c. dodge who wrote (1689)6/7/1998 1:17:00 PM
From: raefon  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 3247
 
MCD,

I just wanted to respond to your comments that TFS was being downgraded to "B" status at Red Chip.

First of all, obviously this comment validates my "reporter" commentary of a few posts back. The analyst who follows TFS for Red Chip is a generalist who favors retail. I have met her a couple of times and quickly came to the conclusion she was a *short*. The thread participants understand this business much better than she ever will. Please do not put any relevance in her comments.

Call me crazy but my own opinion has been that this may well be my last shot to buy decent size in TFS at these levels. Clearly the revenue will ramp significantly over the next several quarters. What TFS really MUST do is grow the top line. QUICKLY. In my opinion, if I were an analyst covering TFS, I would have used the price decline as an opportunity to jump up and down and scream BUY. If the company reaches the revenue goals(up AT LEAST 25%)that it suggested in the most recent release, how could the stock NOT trade materially higher?
Cihra has no courage, but he does believe in the company.

MCD, remember the discussion we had about MINI? Red Chip removed the stock from the recommended list because they felt the"dilution" from a warrant expiration would cause negative price action as the float increased. The stock then very quickly doubled in the face of their comments. The fundamentals of TFS have not changed. Actually they appear to be improving significantly. The next couple of quarters will be very important. I personally believe this was the last near term risk we had and now we are through it. Please TFS, no more negative surprises....

Go MJ