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Strategies & Market Trends : Sonki's Links List -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sonki who wrote (131)6/6/1998 7:52:00 PM
From: ANANT  Respond to of 395
 
XEON may enhance Intel e in 2nd half of 98

With the commitment of IBM, DELL, CPQ etc for the use of XEON proc. of Intel, the server mkt will be heating up.

SUNW probably is not very heavy in this space. What impact does have on SUNW?

How well does DELL do in future ? with growing competition against IBM? IBM can offer complete one shop solution while DELL is tying up with WANG., UIS etc for svc & support. Very large corporations prefer one shop solution. I am afraid Dell is being pushed into the high end of corpo. mkt while he does not have any low-end.

Intel will be a beneficiary as it sells chips to all those players. MSFT also. WINTEL wins as a result.

What about CPQ?

Is my above conjecture is my dream which is biased or is there any truth in that?

ANANT



To: Sonki who wrote (131)6/8/1998 7:56:00 AM
From: ANANT  Respond to of 395
 
sonki: Interesting article from NYT on CSCO/LU/NORTEL

We have to understand these businesses quite well before we make serious investments. i believe there is a tremendous gth in this area longterm. We will see many consolidations in this area and it is difficult to predict the survivors.

ANANT
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June 8, 1998

INDUSTRY VIEW / By TOM STEINERT-THRELKELD
Cisco Systems Takes On the Really Big Boys on Routing Data
or most of the last decade, Cisco Systems Inc. has been steamrolling competitors in data networking. Its routers and switches dominate the Internet and corporate networks that try to get disparate sorts of computers to talk to each other.

It holds a 70 percent market share in routers, and the company's $79.3 billion value in the stock market is more than four times the combined stock market value of its main rivals: the 3Com Corporation, Bay Networks Inc. and Cabletron Systems Inc.

But lately, Cisco is on a collision course with a set of new, much bigger competitors. Companies that have made their livelihoods selling gear to the telephone industries are intent on moving into Cisco's market. These companies contend that their long experience in running dedicated-circuit voice networks gives them an edge over Cisco, which has specialized in sending data as packets distributed over a variety of pathways between routers, the traffic controllers of the Internet.

The most prominent of these new rivals are Lucent Technologies, the spinoff of the AT&T Corporation that includes Bell Labs, and Northern Telecom of Canada, Lucent's chief competitor in the supply of conventional switches and other equipment for telephone networks.

Not only do they have the heft -- Lucent has three times the annual revenue of Cisco -- but they also have the motivation. They realize that the market for the equipment they have been selling, which relies on setting up dedicated paths, or circuits, for each communication, is quickly becoming doomed. In the future, this dedicated-circuit approach, known as circuit switching, seems destined to be replaced by more efficient and economical packet-switching technology on which the Internet (and Cisco's business) is based.

Packet switching, originally intended for transmitting data, was once thought to be too crude for voice communications. But increased communications capacity and improvements in the way the technology can organize the packets are beginning to make it possible to use packet switching even for "continuous flow" information like voice conversations and even video programming.

"We're at a technology flash point where there is no longer a question that data is the dominant architecture and voice is a service," said Cisco's executive vice president, Don Listwin.

To overcome Cisco's leadership in data networking, Lucent and Northern Telecom will be counting on their ability to transfer the characteristics of voice network technology to data networks. They will tout the "extra level of engineering" that goes into the more complicated networks that carry voice traffic, as David Ramos, a Nortel vice president for marketing, likes to put it.

"There's no one silver bullet," said Bill O'Shea, president of Lucent's data networking business. "It's years and years of experience, building systems and watching how they operate" that insure reliability and avoid failures.

Yet Lucent and Nortel are still very much newcomers. Only this month will Lucent begin testing its first billion-bits-a-second packet switch based on Internet protocols, which could become a true competitor to Cisco's most advanced gear. Northern Telecom, for its part, derived only $785 million of its $15.4 billion in revenue last year from data networking; it has a long way to go to be on an equal footing with Cisco.

But then, in this transition from the old world architecture of circuit switching to the new world of packet switching, it is not altogether certain that Cisco plans to slug it out with Nortel and Lucent.

Cisco's chairman, John Chambers, reportedly broke off intensive talks with Lucent about some sort of partnership because the two companies' product lines had begun to overlap too closely. Now, he is said to be bent on concluding an alliance with Nortel, which could take advantage of its strengths in sales and service in the telephone industry.

But the impulse to form new data networking alliances is not Cisco's alone. Last week, the data-switch maker Tellabs announced plans to acquire the Ciena Corporation, a highflying supplier of a new technology that vastly expands the capacity of fiber backbones, for $7.5 billion. And a day later, another digital switch maker, DSC Communications, agreed to be acquired for $4.4 billion in stock by Alcatel Alsthom of France -- a telecommunications equipment giant that wants to expand its American presence.

So Cisco may find it harder to steamroll the competition. Last week, when Sprint announced plans for its national network to evolve from circuit switching to packet switching, attention centered on the fact that the key new equipment for chopping voice, video and other data into fixed-size packets would come from Cisco, and not from a telecommunications vendor like Lucent.

But Cisco's gear, when ready, will at first only be found on the edge of this new-era network. At its core, at least for awhile, will be data switches from the Japanese giant NEC -- and, oh yes, from Nortel. Tom Steinert-Threlkeld is the editor in chief of Inter@ctive Week, an industry publication covering the Internet and communications network technology.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



To: Sonki who wrote (131)6/9/1998 7:20:00 AM
From: ANANT  Respond to of 395
 
Intel Steps Up Use of Price Cuts
To Protect Its Turf and to Expand
WSJ article June 9, 98

By DEAN TAKAHASHI
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- Intel Corp. is stepping up the use of pricing as a weapon to protect its biggest business and to expand into new markets.

The giant chip maker Monday dropped prices by 12% to 32% on its flagship Pentium II microprocessors, the third cut this year as Intel reacts to slowing demand for personal computers and to rivals at the low end of the market. Microprocessors act as the computing engines of PCs, and Intel dominates the field with about 85% of the market.

FTC Files Antitrust Charges Against Chip Maker Intel

Libertarians Choose Sides as Antitrust Case Expands

Company Profile: Intel

Intel is also attracting attention by slashing prices in its newest business, chips used to display graphics on PCs. John Latta, president of 4th Wave Inc., a Washington market researcher, said that Intel is selling below manufacturing costs in some Asian markets to unload inventories of unsold products. An Intel spokesman denied its prices are below production cost, a condition that could put the company in violation of laws against the practice known as dumping.

The developments come as the U.S. Federal Trade Commission filed a long-awaited antitrust suit focusing on the way Intel allegedly uses its control over technical information to muscle customers. Pricing isn't a part of the initial complaint, but the FTC is continuing to investigate the company's moves beyond the microprocessor market, and Intel's pricing in other businesses is likely to draw the agency's attention.

Prices are inevitably driven lower in the semiconductor business as manufacturers find ways to shrink circuitry to increase performance and boost the number of working chips on each silicon wafer. For example, Intel Monday unveiled a faster version of its Celeron line for PCs priced at less than $1,200, which operates at a speed of 300 megahertz. That chip, at $159, is 11% faster than a 266-megahertz Celeron. Intel Monday cut the price of the slower chip by 32% to $106.

Until recently, Intel has been able to persuade most PC buyers to upgrade to faster systems, priced at $2,500 or more, that use microprocessors that cost several hundred dollars. But the latest cuts reflect a continuing market shift, as customers have become satisfied with the performance of machines priced at $1,000 or even lower.

In graphics chips, Mr. Latta said that Intel has been churning out unusually high volumes of a product called the I-740, at prices ranging from $7 to $26, to PC makers in Taiwan and other Asian countries. He said the $7 price applies to customers that buy the graphics chip bundled with Intel microprocessors and other accessory chips. The Intel spokesman denied that the company is bundling, a practice also frowned upon under antitrust law. Mr. Latta estimates that it costs Intel about $16 to make each chip. He said the company's pricing is having a devastating effect on the market, which is going through a major transition as PC graphics evolve from two-dimensional to three-dimensional animations.

"The effects are being felt throughout the 3-D industry," Mr. Latta said in a recent report. "It remains a mystery why Intel would engage in such destructive actions."

Last month, Osman Kent, chief executive officer of graphics-chip maker 3Dlabs Inc., warned that the company's earnings would be below expectations because of "competitors dumping chips in Asia." In an interview, Mr. Kent declined to name the competitor. But people close to 3Dlabs said that Intel, which holds a small stake in 3Dlabs, is the primary company Mr. Kent was talking about.

Intel's spokesman said the company has sold the chip below its $28 list price but not below its manufacturing cost. He declined to specify the company's exact pricing for the chips or disclose its manufacturing price.

Dean McCarron, an analyst at Mercury Research in Scottsdale, Ariz., said Intel was forced to offer rock-bottom prices because the chip was expected to be launched last summer and didn't hit the market until February. Meanwhile, other chip makers, such as Nvidia Inc. in Sunnyvale, Calif., and S3 Inc. in Santa Clara, are expected soon to offer potentially superior products. Peter Glaskowsky, an analyst at Micro Design Resources Inc., estimates that Intel may have grabbed about 6% of the graphics-chip market since its entry in February.

Intel, because of its huge research and manufacturing spending, is also well positioned to compete by integrating multiple chips together. Jen-Hsun Huang, chief executive officer of Nvidia, said he isn't worried about Intel's current treatment of his company. But he is worried about competition from a forthcoming Intel set of accessory chips, code-named Whitney, that come with graphics features built in. The product could eliminate the need for separate graphics chips in low-cost computers, analysts said.

But some analysts characterize Intel's pricing moves as a defensive reaction to sub-$1,000 computers, not as an offensive strategy. "Some people may regard it as predatory pricing," said Drew Peck, an analyst at Cowen & Co. "I regard it as the only way to stay in this business."

Intel, which recently put off the arrival of its next-generation chip line until mid-2000, also discussed two high-end chips that could help extend the appeal of its Pentium II line. Tanner, the code name for a chip the company hadn't discussed before, is expected during the first quarter of 1999 and operates at a speed of 500 megahertz. Intel is also moving up the delivery date of another 500-megahertz chip, code-named Katmai, to the first quarter of next year from the second.
-------------------------------------------------------





To: Sonki who wrote (131)6/10/1998 7:07:00 AM
From: ANANT  Respond to of 395
 
sonki: Interesting WSJ article on IBM into DSP market

IBM, Looking to Hot Wireless Market,
Will Sell Digital Chip Mimicking TI's
By RAJU NARISETTI
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
June 10, 1998

International Business Machines Corp., aiming directly at the booming wireless-communications market, plans to sell a digital chip that mimics a popular Texas Instruments Inc. device used in about half the world's cellular phones.

The announcement, which IBM is expected to make as early as Wednesday, could sharply accelerate competition in the $3.13 billion global market for digital signal processors, or DSPs, which grew at 34% last year and is expected to hit $14 billion by 2002.

Company Profile: International Business Machines

Instead of selling an off-the-shelf chip and competing head-on with Texas Instruments, which has a 45% share of the global DSP market, IBM plans to offer the chip's core -- building blocks that are combined to create the final product -- to potential customers. These clients can then order up custom chips.

A spokesman for IBM's microelectronics unit, one of the world's largest chip makers, confirmed the move. He noted that it is part of a new, $100 million investment by the Armonk, N.Y., computer giant to add at least 25 new chip cores to IBM's existing portfolio.

IBM is telling industry analysts that it built the chip from scratch using reverse engineering, though it is unclear if that could end up running afoul of any Texas Instruments patents.

A spokeswoman for Texas Instruments, Dallas, declined to comment on that issue, except to note that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. "This is really a good indication that we have the best DSP in the market," said Donna Coletti. "That is why they are cloning it."

DSPs are specialized chips that perform high-speed mathematical computations with voice, data and video signals in everything from wireless phones to digital cameras, compact-disk players and pagers. IBM is targeting the cell-phone and other fast-growing wireless markets.

For IBM, a move into the DSP market is a high-stakes step. It comes at a time when the computer giant is finding some success in getting new, non-IBM customers for its chip-making technology, as chip sales to other IBM divisions gradually decline. Meanwhile, an industry-wide slump, creating a glut in memory chips and stifling demand for microprocessors used in personal computers, is forcing IBM and other chip makers to venture into new markets, such as telecommunications, where global demand for DSPs is soaring.

While the overall integrated-circuit market grew just 4% last year, DSP unit shipments jumped 65%, according to Forward Concepts Co., a Tempe, Ariz., market-research firm that tracks the DSP market.

Still, the DSP market is dominated by just a few players. Industry powerhouse Texas Instruments has its commanding 45% share. The remaining market is split among large, aggressive players including Lucent Technologies Inc. (28%), Motorola Inc. (12%) and Analog Devices Inc. (12%). This competition has led to a sharp drop in the average price, down 18% last year, according to Forward Concepts.

By targeting Texas Instruments' C54X family of DSPs, IBM is going after a big chunk of the company's current DSP sales. "Texas Instruments' customers are going to use IBM as a leverage," said Will Strauss, president of Forward Concepts. "Whether they will just use it as a hammer to lower prices or whether they will actually buy some chips from IBM remains to be seen."







To: Sonki who wrote (131)6/10/1998 9:09:00 PM
From: ANANT  Respond to of 395
 
sonki: Yahoo link for insider trading

i found yahoo link for insider selling. This appears to give more recent information than StkSmrt. and this is free.

yahoo.com

ANANT



To: Sonki who wrote (131)6/11/1998 11:27:00 AM
From: Brian Malloy  Respond to of 395
 
A good article to read over the weekend. It looks at some long term trends. Reference robots and surgury you may want to point to the parts in the article that talk about nanoprobe technology with your son. It will be a reality one day. The Borg/Seven of Nine on Star Trek talk about the technology but in 15 or 20 years we will probably have nanoprobes that can be released in the body and clear up fatty plaques in the blood vessels as an example.

I have been watching Pioneer Hybrid (PHB) for about two months. After I read the article last night I picked up PHB this morning. They are doing great and will probably be acquired at some point in the future.
PHB is the only major "pure" agricultural-biotech seed company left now that DeKalb Genetics has been bought out by Montsanto. Dupont, ADM or others will want to get their hands on PHB.

The Long Boom: A History of the Future, 1980 - 2020
wired.com

Regards,
Brian



To: Sonki who wrote (131)6/13/1998 8:25:00 PM
From: ANANT  Respond to of 395
 
sonki: Thanks for ur post on the WS Wk on WCOM thread.
Please glance thru this weeks Barrons Articles if u have time.- Read at least the article on Semiconductors -- Intel

Covered Call options --- a refresher - u can glance thru
-------------------------------------
June 15, 1998

Singles-hitter's Strategy

Covered calls yield low-risk returns

By Richard P. Cancelmo

interactive.wsj.com

Excerpts:

Value drives my approach to stock selection. I try to find quality businesses with good balance sheets selling near their historical low valuation range. I think this approach fits perfectly with covered call writing. How many times have you heard that a company is a good value but "dead money" for the foreseeable future? With covered-call writing, the money isn't dead; it's paid to you upfront in the form of option premiums.
----------------
Interesting article for a glance thru.

SEMICONDUCTORS -- a must read article
----------------------
June 15, 1998
ÿ

Is Silicon Valley Ready To Cash in Its Chips?

By Eric J. Savitz

interactive.wsj.com

Excerpts:

Marren, however, thinks the chip industry is ripe for a round of large-scale consolidation -- and he contends the process will start before year-end
------------------
On one end of the scale are top-tier companies with deep pockets, like Intel, Texas Instruments, STMicroelectronics (the new name for SGS-Thomson), IBM, Lucent, Philips and NEC. At the other end are the "fabless" companies, which design chips but farm out their production, giving them far lower capital expenses. The vulnerable companies, Marren contends, are those caught in the middle -- those with less than $2 billion a year in revenues that rely on their own production facilities. While Marren won't name names -- some of the companies in this group are his clients -- among those that fit his definition are LSI Logic, VLSI Technology, Atmel, Advanced Micro Devices, Integrated Device Technology and Cypress Semiconductor.
----------------
Tales from the Valley: Earlier this month, Hambrecht & Quist chip analyst Robert Chaplinsky made an intriguing call on Intel. He cut his earnings estimates for the June quarter to 65 cents from 69 cents and warned that microprocessor unit sales would be down 8%-10% from the March quarter, with a 3% drop in average selling prices. Chaplinsky cited weaker-than-expected retail PC sales, high industry inventories of older Pentium-based machines and seasonal weakening of European sales.

The comments, coming at a time when Intel's stock had already been sliding, chopped another healthy slice out of the company's market cap. It also got the Street rumor mill churning.

Chaplinsky, as it happens, came to H&Q about two years ago after a six-year career at Intel. His last stop there: investor-relations manager. Chaplinsky contends his tenure at Intel makes him the best-informed analyst on the stock, and he certainly has become influential. There's certainly no doubt Chaplinsky has good contacts at Intel. But the whispering on the Street is that inside Intel, there's concern Chaplinsky's call was uncannily accurate-that perhaps he had taken advantage of his Intel connections to get information others on the Street might not have at their disposal. The talk is that Intel has begun an in-house "witch hunt" to find the leaker, and that the company had been considering pre-announcing its earnings for the quarter, but decided to hold off when Chaplinsky made his recent comments.
-------------------
Oddly enough, H&Q still rates Intel a "buy." Chaplinsky, though, advises against touching the stock until the company provides some information about second-quarter results. He thinks Intel has three choices: pre-announce, miss the quarter or pull in some business from the third quarter-and then provide cautious guidance on the next quarter. Not great options.
---------------------
There's certainly evidence of weak PC sales. Dataquest last week said first-quarter PC sales in the 10 Asia/Pacific markets fell about 20% from a year earlier, to $2.8 billion. Sales fell 82% in Indonesia, 62% in Thailand, 55% in Malaysia and 46% in South Korea. Also last week, International Data Corp. estimated worldwide second-quarter PC unit growth at just 9%. With prices continuing to fall, revenues will rise even less; IDC sees "little relief to the tough pricing environment." One final gloomy note: The Semiconductor Industry Association last week said global chip sales in April fell 0.5% from March, and 6.8% from April 1997.
--------------------
In another disquieting observation, Salomon Smith Barney notes recently that PC makers are increasingly offering financing to Asian customers who might otherwise have slowed their purchases. Compaq, Salomon notes, is offering as much as 100% financing and 60-month payment terms in Hong Kong; Hewlett-Packard will lend Asian customers and distributors $1 billion this year. All this comes at a time when financial institutions are reducing their exposure to Asia companies, Salomon points out.
-----------------
The other Year 2000 problem: Computerworld reports that programmers working on the Year 2000 problem are in for a rude surprise on New Year's Eve, 1999. And they're not talking about global chaos. No, they're talking unemployment. The trade magazine forecasts the disappearance of the problem will result in big layoffs and salary cuts by IT departments that have bulked up to attack the problem. Especially vulnerable are Cobol programmers. One recruiter predicts "a bloodbath."
-----------------------------
June 15, 1998
ÿ

Investors Move Into a Defensive Crouch

By Andrew Bary

interactive.wsj.com

Excerpts:

Even the market's winners last week were a defensive lot. Advancing groups included utility and drug stocks, which are regarded as a safe harbor in times of trouble. Oil stocks had a rocky week, but they did lead the rally during Friday's late-day rebound. This can be seen as yet another sign of investors looking for refuge. Big oil companies have healthy balance sheets and pay rich dividends, averaging more than 3%. Later in the column, we'll turn to the oil stocks that look best for picking about now.
----------------------
Petner maintains News Corp. is the most attractive global media play and that the stock could hit 35 or 40 within two years. News Corp.'s market value is about $23 billion and it has a relatively modest $6 billion in net debt.
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To: Sonki who wrote (131)6/14/1998 3:34:00 PM
From: ANANT  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 395
 
sonki: BitStream: Rocky start to Compaq-DEC marriage

investor.msn.com

IMHO: The author shares most of ur views on the DEC/CPQ merger. I found this article on the CPQ thread. Please read if time permits.

CPQ Future plans -- for reference

Message 4834770

ANANT