To: Charles Hughes who wrote (11036 ) 6/7/1998 3:08:00 AM From: treetopflier Respond to of 14631
UNIX vs. NT They'll both win. Ultimately a tremendous amount of both will be sold and the vaste majority of revenues from NT and related sales will go to the Wintel cartel, while the UNIX sales will increasingly go the surviving HW vendors (IBM, SUNW, HP and NCR) and DB/Tools vendors with major market shares plus apps and consulting. This is a fairly esoteric debate. The IT industry in two years will be $1T according to Gartner. Microsoft and the major UNIX players will ALL get rich, so will IBM. By 2005 there will really only be three major 'players': IBM, Wintel (includes the Dell's, Compaqs, Symantec's etc. that exist today) and another major UNIX/software company, which like it or not, based on market presence is likely to be some virtual combination of Sun/Oracle. HP isn't serious enough about UNIX to claim a majority of mktshare and neither is NCR. I sold jointly with all of them for three years and while they all have competent UNIX implementations, Sun has killer instinct and is priced to sell. ALL OF THE MAJORITY MARKETSHARE PLAYERS in these three 'architectures' will make substantial $$$ over the next 7 years, barring a long Y2K hiuccup. The trick is to avoid the vendors that have had missteps that cost them their opportunity to continue playing the game. There was an interesting post on the SYBS thread about how to maximize shareholder value in light of dire financial circumstances by dividing the company. Maybe it is an option for IFMX to consider also. NT vs. UNIX vs. IBM, after the bell rings they all retreat to their corners and come back for another round... We all buy more beer and popcorn and anxiously await the outcome. This prize fight has been going on for 15 years -- don't you know they get paid by the round? Just so happens IBM gets more per round, thats all. The big get bigger. Bye low, sell high...