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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (16422)	6/6/1998 8:11:00 PM
From: Temple Williams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68975

A day trader (or short-term position trader) going into this particular market "convinced" that such-and-such will happen ... resembles a warrior going into battle with a gun full of blanks. May look good. Might even sound good. But the end result will be a dead trader. If you have the slightest need "to be right" ... you will lose, probably sooner rather than later. Egos and trading accounts don't mix. Never have. Because it's hard to hear what a market is telling you if you keep shouting "I'm RIGHT! I know I'm RIGHT! See how clever I am!" So how can you take these obvious platitudes and make something resembling a trading strategy out of them? How can you wake up every trading day market neutral, ready to listen rather than roar, win rather than weep? I spend between 7 and 10 hours after every trading day's closing bell preparing roadmaps for the following day ... a "most likely" preferred series and a "next most likely" alternate series (16 roadmaps in all). They are not always opposing views, of course. But often they are. Regardless of my position in the market (I am an S&P Futures Trader ... Spoos are all I do), these voodoo wave roadmaps invariably force me into a state of neutrality that lets me listen to the market (particularly the whipsaw, choppy market we are now in) ... and win. Monday will probably be another good example of this. How do I know which roadmap to follow? I rarely put on a trade before 10 a.m. (Globex action sometimes creates an exception). I never put on a trade after 3:30 p.m. Naturally, I can exit trades in either of those time zones. But by holding off in the morning, I invariably discover the roadmap for the day. If neither the Preferred nor the Alternate falls into place ... I get the day off! Does it work? Yes. My free website shows recent trading results at skansearch.com and if you click the timelines in the chart on that web page, you can suffer through the real-time trading diaries (warning: there's a load of charts and stuff in the diary pages, so your computer might break out in a sweat while they load). And here's thumbnails of the 18-min bars charts for Monday ... great trading to all: skansearch.com

To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (16422)	6/6/1998 9:38:00 PM
From: Clint E.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68975

>>>But still, you didn't change your mind and stayed short for the better part of Thursday. True! For a several reasons I didn't cover early on. I will do the same if the same conditions prevail: 1.I didn't want to panic and cover at the opening gap. 2.A few intraday signals were still negative with NAZ up ~9 points in the morning. NAZ slipped below its opening gap and then could not get above its pervious day's congestion point. DOW headed below 8.8K in the morning. It had not sunk this low for quite some time. 3.With the exception of AOL, I was in BLACK in all my shorts since I shorted the TOP on Wed when others had gone long. It makes a great deal of difference when I come from a winning position than a loosing position. I cut loss quickly but try to let profits run as much I see fit. 4. I expected a sell off in the afternoon since that had been the norm and wanted to gauge the degree of the sell off to see if it is biz as usual or one that will reverse up. If you go back and check the time of my posts on Thurs, you will see that I pulled out at the bottom of afternoon sell off. All in black expect AOL, still very much in black. I didn't long stocks on Thurs. because I didn't know what Friday's unemployment data would bring and whether or not we get another warning after the close. One indicator that I had followed in the past, namely the bank stocks, were also doing poorly. Therefore, unlike the month before, I didn't feel comfortable with longs on Thurs. Furthermore, I had made huge profits on Monday/Tues/and some on Thurs. Why loose some of it when risk/reward ratio is stacked against me? I thought I can enter the market on Friday morning once I know what the direction is. That's exactly what I did and I timed the top and bottom of Friday within minutes. One last reason that I can see more clearly now is that I was simply getting tired, trading-wise. It had been a volatile weak and I had made lots of moves and trades. It is good to check your accts. from time to time and see that you are 100% in cash. >>Clint, you sounded a bit panicky on Wednesday... Let me first say that I usually don't check breaking news during the day. When I shorted stocks on Wed or later said NAZ is going to hell I had no idea INTC's estimates were cut. I found that after the close along with INTC's PR. Therefore, not knowing about INTC and seeing the intensity of the sell off on Wed afternoon, ten minutes before the close, I was convinced that we will have a bad day on Thurs and NAZ will reach 1712 and that's what I posted before the close. If you have any experience with NAZ, you would know that an afternoon sell off especially if it is triggered on no news, will carry onto next morning's trading. I was going to cover and long stocks on Thurs, in that case. Obviously INTC's PR changed everything. Secondly, in your view, two days ago I was a hero and now I am a panicky individual because you lost money. I am quite used to this kind of hot/cold attitude and it doesn't bother me a bit. It is part of human nature. As far as flexibility, I certainly don't need a lesson there. Good luck to you too and yes please stick to your own system and that goes for everybody else. Clint

To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (16422)	6/7/1998 4:01:00 AM
From: Teri Stephenson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68975

Dwight, I don't know how necessary this message of yours was. Following others' advice is "lazy man's investing/trading" and one who practices it reaps what he sows. I admire anyone(like Clint E.) who has the conviction to throw out their thoughts on stocks/market for everyone to see. Guess what? They're not going to be right 100% of the time. So for those that try to piggyback(myself included), tough luck on any losses incurred. Good luck on finding your next GURU. Teri