To: John Mansfield who wrote (18083 ) 6/7/1998 12:00:00 PM From: Raymond James Norris Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 31646
Stochastics seems to turning positive right now in June. Any comments? Yeah sure <g>. From my reading of the chart, TAVA is due for a move to retest 11 1/8 or 8 3/4 in the very near future. I described earlier this coil that was forming for TAVA which is a precursor to one of the extremities. The reason I don't know which way it'll break is because a coil by definition means both bulls and bears are getting weaker... But to the more ascribed technician, some other leading indicators are looking on the "up and up." MACD is a trending indicator that, in layman's terms, gives buy and sell signals off the crossover of two lines. Essentially, you "buy" when you see the short term line cross above the long term line and "sell" when you see the short term line cross below the long term line. How good is the signal?? Well, the last buy signal given was on 3/16 at 9.00 a share. That preceded the 14 run up. It did not say "sell" until 4/3 at 13 1/8 - well before the stock collapsed. The last signal given by MACD was the sell signal of 4/3. It hasn't said buy since then... However, that might all change Monday. The MACD is closest as it has ever been to giving a buy signal. The two lines I spoke about above are right on top of each other. One more up day will cause a complete cross over and thus the first "buy" signal will be given since 3/16. The technical analyst uses all resources at his/her disposal. The coil forming mentioned above is one criteria we have and the MACD mentioned later is a second. Combining them gives us grounds to believe that next breakout will be to the upside - and thus a retest of 11 1/8. I'll add true coil breakouts usually extend beyond the resistance level by the height of the coil. That height is 2.375 (11.125 - 8.75). Following this reasoning, if TAVA ends the day "up" tomorrow and the MACD "buy" is given, we have grounds to believe TAVA will break from its coil and reach a minimum height of 13.50 (2.375 + 11.125). How's that for good news <g> Caution: There is still the possibility the coil breaks down instead of up. While I don't believe it's likely, the stock could end up retesting 8 3/4. Conservatively Yours, Raymond J. Norris