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Strategies & Market Trends : The Rational Analyst -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HeyRainier who wrote (1088)	6/7/1998 7:45:00 AM
From: Susan Saline	Respond to of 1720

ORFR ORFR Chart 207.95.154.130 Morning Rainier and all, Long term view. The trend is down. Stochastics at 24 ... heading south RSI is at 38 with very slight upward direction, when/if RSI is at 50, and other indicators are showing strength and upward movement, a buy could possibly be considered. Volume is slowing, a slow drip by drip decline One curious point about this chart is the perfect example of how "filling the gap" occurs in charts. Gaps (both up and down) are flukes, usually reflecting overdone buying/selling based on news or some 1 time event. When gaps do occur, they are normally "filled" as this one was, Gap down mid February, gap filled mid April. The oddity of this chart is how quickly the gap did fill... Gap down took one day Gap fill took only 2 days Gaps usually do fill, but 2 days, I consider a very quick fill after the gap "fills" the trend then continues back to as it was formerly (in this case, down) Take out the "suspect" time period from mid February to mid April and you have a perfect downtrend Also (short term opinion) The last few days show flat, with end of day selling. IMO ... when in a downtrend, after flat comes more downward action. As far as the trend changing...only the fundamentals can do that...and as you have shown in your listing of the quarterly's...it appears they have not yet shown improvement. This is one stock I would not currently consider a hold or buy . For those who own this, I hope I am wrong....and that does occur often enough. This is a chart read only .... no fundamental analysis. Sue

To: HeyRainier who wrote (1088)	6/7/1998 2:18:00 PM
From: Grantcw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1720

[ORFR] Susan and Rainier, I appreciate both of your viewpoints, even though they seem to be not so great for ORFR. My vision sometimes gets cloudy on stocks I've owned for a while, and I definitely like to see a fresh look on things. Couple of things I thought I'd bring to light: To me, the ORFR chart looks to have broken the trendline, barely, with its jump to 15 in April. The price action drifted right back down however as if the jump never happened and I was wondering if you treated this differently. I've read Victor Sperandeo's book "Trader Vic..." and saw the pattern as a break in trend and most likely a retest of former lows before carrying upwards. Susan, I also agree that looking at the candles of the last week look weak with so many black bars, but I don't think it's sooo significant when noticing the weak volume and large bid/ask spread. To me, it just looks like the market maker gets a quick buck at the beginning of the day from some buyer and a seller has been selling a couple of hundred shares for the last trade of the day. I do wish it was the other way around though... I've established a small position for now and am looking to add when I seriously think we're starting an uptrend. Here's why I have a small position. If you look at the chart, you see a lot of drifting and a lot of upward or downward spikes of many percentage points in short time periods. This stock has a float of only 2 million shares and really moves on news. I don't want to be caught off guard if good news is released. Secondly, I'm confident in management. The last two quarters have been bad due to problems in Asia. Management came out a couple of weeks before the first bad quarter with warning that the next two quarters weren't going to be so hot. They weren't as you can see, although there was some growth. Estimates have been lowered to .80 this year, but the CEO has maintained that previous estimates of $1.00 are more in target (I'll check on this because it does seem a little too good to be true, but I'm pretty sure he's been saying this in conference calls). This leaves a lot of leeway to make .80 this year. Basically, the CEO hasn't disappointed me yet and has developed enough trust from me that I'm willing to assign a very good risk/reward ratio to the stock. Again, I do appreciate any thoughts you guys have and any rebuking if this seems to be a sales pitch/hyping of ORFR by me. I try not to hype stocks, but I'm very fond of the devil's advocate argumentative approach and may come off a bit hypish. Thanks again all, Grant

To: HeyRainier who wrote (1088)	6/8/1998 12:32:00 PM
From: Greg Butcher	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1720

Rainier, If you don't mind would like to get your take on ADPT chart. On friday the Stochastic Oscillator triggered a buy as well as the CCI and the MACAD was a sell as far back as 22 days this being a trailing indictor does not have me concerned also the RSI is at 33 just coming into stable territory. The pattern itself looks like the weak hands are out and the strong hands are ready to hold and buy more at this point. Anything I missed that would throw the weight of the evidence to the bear side? A LITTLE FA TO BOOT FROM CBS MKT WATCH... .Business Summary ADPT is a supplier of bandwidth management solutions that enhance total system performance by increasing the data transfer rates between personal computers, servers, peripherals & networks. For the 9 mos. ended 12/97, revenues rose 20% to $803.7M. Net income before acct. change rose from $60.7M to $158.5M. Revenues reflect higher shipments of host adapters & proprietary integrated circuits. Earnings reflect the absence of a $80.7M write-off of acquired R&D. Thanks Greg