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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerome who wrote (5728)	6/7/1998 11:48:00 AM
From: david	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

I am also optimistic. Chips are becoming more and more pervasive. The fact that intel and others are having a price war is GOOD for the people selling armament(equipment). The low prices will sell more chips. Companies will have to get better yields and lower manufacturing costs. Coming up we have the transition to 300mm,Cu,low K dielectrics. PC sales will continue to advance. Over the next two years we have technologies like DVD, and ADSL which will sell computers and other types of chips. ADSL provides something like 25 times the performance of 55k modems. This is a big step. GTE and Bell South are rolling this out in the end of '98 and '99. This technology will be an enabling technology for many applications that just don't cut it at low modem speeds. On line shopping,gaming,video conferences...what else??? This industry is cyclical (the understatement of the century). But the US and a handful of our equipment companies have dominant positions, both in market share and technology. This downturn is an opportunity to buy.... still optimistic as ever davd

To: Jerome who wrote (5728)	6/7/1998 6:18:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Jerome,fortinwit: re:"The bottom is here now. Bad news and downgrades are having less and less impact on stock prices." You meant "more and more impact", didn't you? Yes, we are much closer to capitulation now than 3 weeks ago. We are closer to the bottom. But are we there? I've been on the sidelines since I got out at 37.5, and I've watched a lot of people catch the falling knife in the last few days. "32 is support for amat,I'm in; klac is a great value, I'm in; asmlf is way off its highs, I'm in;yada yada yada". Great spreadsheet, fortinwit. Notice that the industry leaders (amat,klac,nvls) could lose half their remaining stock price, maintain current sales, and still be above the 1996 P/S trough. The decision about where the bottom is, is an essentially emotional event. It is unknowable, and not subject to rational analysis. I'll let Mr. Market tell me where the bottom is. And I'll take the risk of buying too late.