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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E'Lane who wrote (9289)	6/7/1998 1:25:00 PM
From: DaiS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

E'Lane, We have had the suspected viagra deaths but no VIAGRA RAPES yet I think - I find this strange. Given that viagra increases the frequency and level of desire as well as sustaining performance, the possibilities are horrendous. Would you not now be more cautious about walking a dark alley with the thought of viagra intoxicated men lurking? I wonder is there is a forensic test for detecting sildenafil in blood. DaiS PS I am not joking

To: E'Lane who wrote (9289)	6/7/1998 2:21:00 PM
From: RCMac	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23519

E'Lane, Absolutely no apology necessary, IMO. You did us a great service. The "rules of combat" frowning on unsubstantiated posts or posts w/o links shouldn't inhibit anyone from bringing such a well-considered and articulate post to the thread, and I for one think it's an important contribution, and one I'm glad was posted here (I would never have trolled through the "cesspool" of the Yahoo Vivus board for long enough to find it]. The Yahoo post is carefully thought out and detailed, as far as it goes. The next questions, for this thread, are: (1) how good are its reasoning and its assumptions, and therefore its conclusions about how much Muse Vivus might sell? and (2) the question the post challenges us to pursue, what are the likely financial results of that (or an appropriately adjusted) level of sales? In particular, the Yahoo post concluded: "$11,500,000 x .15 x 36 x 18 =$1.1 billion dollars of eventual MUSE sales outside the US [in addition to 300 million in the US]. This does not include a progressively growing and aging population. "I hope this analysis helped. "I would like for someone to calculate net EPS based on these numbers for the world market. Lets give an eventual target date for these numbers as the year 2000." This thread failed to respond at all to that challenge when E'Lane first brought it to us in April, at Message 4053910 It drew virtually no discussion whatever. Does anyone (in addition to Sal, who has made a start) care to take on the challenge now? -- RCM

To: E'Lane who wrote (9289)	6/7/1998 2:29:00 PM
From: Sal Milani	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

E'Lane - <I wish I could help you out.> Thanks anyway. It was a very good post and the author, whoever he/she is, arrives at approx. the same numbers as I. The biggest difference is in the MUSE revenues per year per user. I took an arbitrary $5/week * 50 weeks for $250/yr whereas he/she uses 36 times/yr * $22/dose = $792/yr. I think the revenues to Vivus are only about $12/dose and I expect it to come down since Viagra's retail price is only about $8. Anyway it looks like Vivus should be able to keep busy in spite of Viagra.