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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry D who wrote (19986)	6/7/1998 5:11:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

re: "if you bought AMAT in the 50's last fall and held on now, i am pretty sure you could sell it for a nice profit 2 to 3 years from now." I'm not so sure about that. If you bought KLIC at it's peak in 1993, and held till today, you've had a wild ride, and made less money than your grandmother, whose 5-year treasuries just matured. If you bought the industry leaders (amat, klac, nvls) at their top in 1995, and held till today, you're behind the guy who stuffed cash under his mattress 3 years ago. If you buy at the top, and hold, you have to have a very long-term outlook (10 years, probably), in order to do better than the index funds. No, I think a successful investor in semi-equips has to buy low (P/S<2) and hold (forever, or at least till the next cycle peak=P/S>3.5), or you might as well put your money someplace safer. And almost any other place you can think of is safer.