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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (19994)	6/7/1998 10:47:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Re: klac You are right that the sudden drop on volume and little news suggests that this is an Intel or CPQ situation again. However, several things comfort me. 1). I haven't bought much yet, and this equip drop has caused me to alter my plan back to the December formula. A return to 96 lows will be one of those rare opportunities that scream at you. 2).The institutionsfake themselves out regularly, as they showed with CSCO 14 months ago....dropping it from 75 to 46 when it turned out all was ok; the competition was getting slaughtered because csco was killing them. 3). KLAC's valuations are reasonably compelling now. 4). Finally, if klac warns, and if this drop is because the institutions know this is going to happen, the price may be reasonably stable. When cpq finally told US, 1 month afetr telling THEM, the price dropped for a day and then stabilized higher. The recent intel debacle was similar. Now, what I think is going to happen is that klac will make an announcement soon. I also think there may be more negativity from amat...beyond what is expected. As Teri told me about a week ago, when they stop dropping on more bad news, the bottom is in, at least short term.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (19994)	6/7/1998 11:16:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Respond to of 70976

Justa, I have spent several days reviewing the past 20 year track record of this industry, with regard to overall revenue numbers primarily. One thing that is particularly striking, given that we are bound to have a terrible next 12 months; any comparable periods of time of 3+ years with flat revenue did in fact end with an explosion in revenue growth and stock prices. I am aware that most of you know this, but reviewing it was compelling. 3 years is stretching the consolidation phase out a bit, and this period has often ended with many of the companies revenue figures doubling suddenly, within 6 months.