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Technology Stocks : DII Group, Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gs who wrote (1656)	6/7/1998 11:23:00 PM
From: gs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1845

Good link, moneynet.com@NEWS-P2&Index=0&HeadlineURL=../News/NewsHeadlines.asp&DISABLE_FORM=

To: gs who wrote (1656)	6/8/1998 11:40:00 AM
From: kolo55	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1845

Agree valuation is low, but how about Orbit uncertainty? The stock is trading near historical low multiples, and last time it trade here, the stock was a great buy. But last time (Jan 97), Dovatron was about to expand dramatically after opening new facilities, Multek was minting money, and Orbit was at least breaking even. Now Dovatron is transitioning as some major customer programs wind down, Multek is caught up in the board business slowdown, and Orbit's future is uncertain. I would consider playing the stock if it was just Dovatron and Multek; their problems are temporary and not fatal. Eventually both units should rebound nicely, and I expect in 6-12 months they'll be cooking again. This alone might be enough to move the stock substantially higher. But Orbit I can't predict. In order to understand what might happen at Orbit, we would need to understand the ASIC market. Since you are a bull on DIIG, Maybe you can answer these questions (or someone else on the thread): 1. Who are Orbit's competitors? Are their business prospects improving or declining? 2. Is Orbit's newly purchased fab (0.6 micron spacing) competitively state of the art? Where is the technology moving, and is Orbit able to move with it? 3. Who are Orbit's major customers? How are their business prospects? I believe that the business is pretty well diversified, but is dependance on one customer growing? 4. What does the pricing look like in the ASIC market? Are prices improving or deteriorating? What is the market growth and pricing forecast look like for this market? 5. Is Orbit a growth candidate? All the other questions add up to the last question. If Orbit isn't a growth candidate, then why did DII buy the unit? I tend to like the management at DII, I think they are competent in their historical core businesses, but I still don't know whether they have their arms around the Orbit biz. They say they have, and I want to believe them. But given that I can only guess at the answers to the questions above, I can't find enough confidence to buy at this point. As a former DIIG shareholder, I hope you guys do well on your investment, and I'm guessing you will. Based on management's forecasted earnings, the stock looks cheap. Paul