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To: jim kelley who wrote (46653)	6/8/1998 1:11:00 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi jim kelley; Let me paraphrase you a little... The potential applications of supercomputers are limitless. The potential enhancements to todays supercomputers are limitless. In fact, the development of computer technology and applications is limited only by the scarcity of qualified people and capital devoted to the task. I changed "computers" to "supercomputers". Statement still makes about as much sense, but clearly time has shown that when the first level of integration hit the supercomputer market (resulting in the current supercomputers made from large number of processors on chips), the result was devastation to the supercomputer makers. My view is not static. The assumption that technical change and profit margins will continue into the future is a static view of the world and is ridiculous. The fact is that the computer market of 1972 was already mature in terms of what computers were used for then. When the first wave of integration hit the market, it destroyed most of the participants. A new market eventually emerged, but there was no easy way to predict which computer builders would be the ones that survived. To predict that the form of computers is going to be the same 10 years from now, (in terms of packaging, cost, types of features, age of technology, etc.) would require complete blindness to the history of what has happened to the computer market in the past. The history of computers is one of fast change punctuated by massive revolutions. Companies grow like mad during the periods of fast change, but the periods of massive revolutions destroy the previous leaders. This has happened two times already in the computer market. This has already happened to the embedded processor market. This is beginning to happen to mobile computers. The next stage in the sequence is desktop computers. The computer industry is a dynamic industry. That means it goes places. It does not remain static. Where the industry is going is easy to see. Higher integration and drastically lower prices. -- Carl