Since it seems a number of you are asking for Amazon.com's
forecasted results. Of course, when you get them from the Analyst
you of course disregard them as complete idiocy. I have done my own
forecast. And here it is!
Sales growth is strong, but less then the past. Gross Margin's
expand, slowly. Expenses grow, but less then sales growth. IMO
amazon.com could accomplish these results. Anyone's thoughts are
appreciated.
Amazon.com
Forecasted Operating Results
(Actual)
97/03 97/06 97/09 97/12 98/03 98/06 98/09 98/12 99/03 99/06 99/09 99/12
Net Sales 87,375 113,590 141,990 198,790 200,210 230,240 259,020 332,410 306,290 321,600 329,640 394,190
Gross Margin 19,321 25,330 31,950 45,130 45,850 53,190 60,350 78,120 72,590 76,860 79,440 95,790
GM % 22.1% 22.3% 22.5% 22.7% 22.9% 23.1% 23.3% 23.5% 23.7% 23.9% 24.1% 24.3%
Operating Exp. 28,195 34,540 41,020 47,170 52,120 56,810 61,070 64,730 67,160 68,840 69,700 70,570
Operating Margin (8,874) (9,210) (9,070) (2,040) (6,270) (3,620) (720) 13,390 5,430 8,020 9,740 25,220
Interest - Net (385) (4,090) (4,280) (4,370) (4,520) (4,630) (4,710) (4,610) (4,610) (4,580) (4,520) (4,280)
Net Income (Loss) (9,259) (13,300)(13,350)(6,410) (10,790)(8,250) (5,430)$8,780 $820 $3,440 $5,220 $20,940
EPS ($0.20) ($0.28) ($0.28) ($0.13) ($0.21) ($0.16) ($0.10) $0.16 $0.02 $0.06 $0.09 $0.36
Shares 46,622 47,554 48,506 49,476 50,465 51,474 52,504 53,554 54,625 55,718 56,832 57,969
Net Debt (Cash) (21,214)2,050 17,030 24,790 36,690 45,790 51,880 43,780 43,740 41,110 36,790 17,050
Sales Growth 32.4% 30.0% 25.0% 40.0% 0.7% 15.0% 12.5% 28.3% (7.9%) 5.0% 2.5% 19.6%
Growth w/o Seasonality 54% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 17.5% 15.0% 12.5% 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 2.5%
Expense Growth 24.0% 22.5% 18.8% 15.0% 10.5% 9.0% 7.5% 6.0% 3.8% 2.5% 1.3% 1.3%
00/03 00/06 00/09 00/12
Net Sales 306,290 321,600 329,640 394,190
Gross Margin 72,590 76,860 79,440 95,790
GM % 23.7% 23.9% 24.1% 24.3%
Operating Exp. 67,160 68,840 69,700 70,570
Operating Margin 5,430 8,020 9,740 25,220
Interest - Net (4,610) (4,580) (4,520) (4,280)
Net Income (Loss) $820 $3,440 $5,220 $20,940
EPS $0.02 $0.06 $0.09 $0.36
Shares 54,625 55,718 56,832 57,969
Net Debt (Cash) 43,740 41,110 36,790 17,050
Sales Growth (7.9%) 5.0% 2.5% 19.6%
Growth w/o Seasons 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 2.5%
Expense Growth 3.8% 2.5% 1.3% 1.3%
Sales seasonality; to account for larger Christmas season.
24%/24%/24%/28%
Gross Margin increases .2% each quarter
Operating expenses grow with sales but at a lesser rate
(75%-98; 60%-99, 50%-00)
Debt (Cash) - uses $10,000 each quarter, plus or minus operating
loss or (income).
Interest - $325,000 debt at 10%; less cash balance earning 5%
Shares increases 2% each quarter.
Annual Forecasted Results
1997 1998 1999 2000
Net Sales 147,758 541,745 1,021,880 1,351,720
Gross Margin 28,813 121,731 237,510 324,680
GM % 19.5% 22.5% 23.2% 24.0%
Operating Exp. 58,022 150,925 234,730 276,270
Operating Margin (29,209) (29,194) 2,780 48,410
Interest - Net 1,619 (13,125) (18,470) (17,990)
Net Income (Loss) (27,590) ($42,319) ($15,690) $30,420
EPS ($0.64) ($0.88) ($0.31) $0.53
43,302 48,039 51,999 56,286
Sales Growth 267% 89% 32%
Expense Growth 160% 56% 18%
Sorry about the formating. |
