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Technology Stocks : THREE FIVE SYSTEM (TFS) - up from here? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: michael c. dodge who wrote (1713)6/8/1998 7:45:00 PM
From: Noblesse Oblige  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3247
 
Hi Michael....

I guess what you and I take for granted isn't totally understood, Michael.

Because of the business concentration, TFS has to be somewhat closer to the vest on financial risk than most manufacturers. I totally endorse that conservatism (though I would have been happy had the company actually followed through on the share buyback it announced following the MOT fiasco of 1996).

Still and all, the company *needs* broader coverage. The group of people doing the analysis today will have to be expanded with two players to be named later. For myself, I would be very happy with either Goldman or First Boston. Let's see who TFS comes up with when the time comes.

Mistakes made on an investment banker selection will haunt you for ages. My own guess is that is what happened following the last secondary, as the outfit from Chicago that arranged for the "road show" left the scene quickly enough after the money was raised. Research should be a quid-pro-quo to an underwriting fee, and a company should do this business with the best available choice rather than entities that have been "friendly" (albeit ineffective) in the past.

The name of the game is to enhance shareholder values, and investment bankers that are incapable of helping in that process are grossly overpaid. The produce nothing, as raising money should be a piece of cake for a TFS.

Look at the ease that Kopin has in that regard, as it has raised north of $100 million in perhaps the last five years. (BTW, anyone that thinks there is no connection between being on the short list of investment bankers and getting a positive research "spin" from the home team can call me at my office, as I have a series of East River bridges that I can part with at any reasonable price.)

This morning's WSJ commentary on Galvin and Motorola makes it patently clear, Michael, that he has only a modest window left to get the cellular handset business untracked and regain some market share. If he is able to bring out some hot, competitive models in July (as promised), the TFS revenue flows will be assured for the life of the programs. Then, we will have straight up year-to-year comparisons for the next 4-6 quarters, long enough for some of the new technologies to really begin to increment revenues.

I am looking forward to July. June hasn't been much fun.

Have a good evening.