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To: Investor-ex! who wrote (12740)6/9/1998 1:13:00 AM
From: ahhaha  Respond to of 116795
 
Interesting way to express it. I believe the capital cycle has peaked. It peaked last summer/fall, but has put a residual peak in during April/May. All part of the topping process. Some would call the run to the upside this year as the exhaustion phase or Elliot Wave 5th count. That would make the current rally a bear market rally. It sure has all the characteristics of a bear market rally.

You have to be patient though and avoid risk. I do this by staying in cash. I'm 70% cash and the rest is in some gold stocks, software, and communications stocks. They are indefinite long term holds. I'm not adding to them and I'm putting new money into mostly T-gov money market fund. I will eventually sell the golds and I might add to them but only at higher prices. On trades I like to join the crowd when the crowd has established that it's a crowd and it's ugly.