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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shane forbes who wrote (5765)	6/9/1998 4:11:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Respond to of 10921

Shane - Well, I think you and I agree. I was only pointing out that, for example, if turn-around from orders to shipment is one month, then two months of approx 0.75 BTB gets you to the same order rate as one month of 0.5 BTB. Say you have $1M in shipments in month 0, and BTB=0.75. Then next month you will have $0.75M in shipments the next month and if BTB is again 0.75 then you will have $0.56M in shipments the next month, and if BTB is 1.0 then you will also have $0.56M in orders. This is the same position you would be in if you had a BTB of 0.56 in the first month. So, in a sense a BTB of 0.5 for one month is not much worse for new orders than a BTB of 0.75 for two months. And I express some doubt whether we will go below 0.7 BTB (in fact I expect a bounce as Feb and March disappear off the 3 month averages), but that doesn't necessarily mean I'm optomisitic (sp?) in the short term. Clark