To: Reseller who wrote (55837 ) 6/9/1998 4:18:00 PM From: Bill Lin Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 58324
Am I looking too far ahead? Execution of the OEM strategy got a big confirmation today 6/9/98. IOM finally got #1 to standardize the zip as the new floppy. Teac and Sony must be concerned, and thus will CONTINUE to push forward with its HiFD, because their revenue stream is at incredible risk. The competition from Sony will be INTENSE in end of Q3, because Sony cannot afford to lose this market (or is it Teac cannot?) Thus to keep the gross margin hungry OEMs happy, IOM must play the lower the ASP game. So, what should we look for? As ASP decreases, and hopefully gross margins stay the same at 25%, a $50 drive will generate $12.50 in gross margins. With an overhead of about $130 million, and zip representing 60% of sales and assuming a 3:1 tie ratio, 60% * 130mm = 78mm guess that 3 zip disks provides $12.50 in gross margin... Thus $78mm/25 = 3.12 million zip drives per quarter. My estimated sales rate of zip is 1.8 million units this quarter. The CPQ announcement may increase this to 2.4 million (50% increase!). So, either the Jaz drive is really selling well and generating healthy margins, or IOM's quarter sucks and will be really negative. I am giving very optimistic numbers, and yet, the numbers still do not add up. WHY? because the overhead is way too high. Period. So, unit sales is only half the picture. the other half is cost control (overhead) and 6 sigma (gross margin in face of ASP reduction). So, yes, its good news. But the OEM strategy is only 1/5th implemented. Get DELL, GTW, HWP and IBM, then we can start a temporary celebration. Then we have to look at the next floppy iteration. Jaz will not do with its 2 platter structure. Too expensive. BL