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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (22031)	6/9/1998 10:54:00 PM
From: ewolf	Respond to of 32384

The problem is that at some point the market may arbitrarily decide that Robinson has it right, that Ligand is destined to become a powerhouse, that the pipeline has unlimited potential. Or it could be a momentary trend of enthusiasm for the company where the stock rises to twenty or twenty-five. It has appeared at times during the last three years as if the market has bought the story but then the stock has pulled back discouragingly. How can you know whether dilution is the real issue? Seems as if dilution is an unavoidable part of the game. The difference for Ligand is that they appear to have grander ambitions and they've decided to go for more likely approvals in small markets to establish profitability in a shorter term. In the meantime, they build a salesforce and gain experience as a commercial company. The stock price can't ever really be predicted but if Ligand is actually making "remarkable progress," an investment in the company is worthwhile because eventually it will pay off a reasonable rate of return.

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (22031)	6/9/1998 11:32:00 PM
From: smh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

It is difficult to argue with the point of fact that one can buy the same share of LGND today - at the same price - as someone else who did so two years ago. However, I suspect we all agree that biotech (including LGND) is undervalued. Based on your comment that you like the company and are poised to invest when the time is right, one might infer that you recognize the intrinsic value which Robinson has (hopefully) built over the last couple of years. So, are you waiting more for Robinson to change priorities or for the market to recognize LGND's value ? Given the environment in which biotechs have existed, what should Robinson have done differently? I am sincerely and keenly interested in your thoughts on this point. Regards smh

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (22031)	6/10/1998 5:47:00 AM
From: Andreas Helke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Had I known that I would not get a return on my investment I would have invested into the S&P500 or into Dell instead. When I started looking into biotechs in 1996 I perceived Ligand as undervalued compared to its intelectual property, pipeline and lack of risk of long term failure. Had I known that the street only respects earnings in Ligands case than I would have known that it was actually overvalued for much of the last two years and the price should have moved from $7 in 1996 to $12 today (discounting expected earnings at 30% a year with a PE of 25). I don't see any sense in abandoning Ligand now after it finally reached a correct price. After all I have the potential upside that the street may in future recognize something beyond earnings. Andreas