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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (5770)	6/9/1998 11:42:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Thanks for the great post. I've got a couple of questions: 1. From 1979 through 1986, the Yen-Dollar exchange rate ranged from 190 to 280. I understand the general idea about the purchasing power of Japanese citizens, and potential inflation of foreign goods, but why is it such a big deal that the Yen just broke up through 140 when it has traded much higher (or should I say lower) for extended periods in the past? 2. You bring up interesting points about the 14,000 level on the Nikkei. In 1989, the Nikkei was 39,000 (I'm going from memory here, so forgive my approximations). In the next few years, the Japanese economy went to hell and the Nikkei plunged more than 60% to just above 14,000. (Now there's a bear market!!) Then, during the next year or so, there was a nice dead cat bounce, but the market went back to retest the 14,000 level. After a successful retest, the Nikkei moved back up to about 20,000 over the next couple of years, followed by the recent decline to just above 14,000. Again, the 14,000 level held. This leads me to my second question: The Japanese market has experienced a ten-year bear market with a triple test of the crucial 14,000 level over an extended period. Is it possible that now is the ideal time to buy the Nikkei? Thanks for your informative posts. I2

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (5770)	6/10/1998 4:26:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 10921

Jess: great post: What you're describing is known as a "sense of impending doom". It's what a heart attack patient feels as he sits on the gurney in the ER, leaning forward, clutching his chest with the sweat popping out on his forehead. He knows he should have quit smoking 20 years ago. He knows he should have taken up jogging 10 years ago. His doctor told him 5 years ago that his cholesterol was too high, but he can't remember to take the pills. And now it's too late, and he knows it. BTW, the G-7 meeting will focus on Russia, not Japan. Russia and Korea and Mexico are small enough (economically) that external levers can be effective. Japan is just too big. They will have to save themselves. God help them; the IMF can't. From what you're saying, it is certain that the yen will continue to slide, the Koreans will start another round of devaluations (they haveto export, and the Chinese will continue to deny any possibility of a yuan devaluation up to the day they do devalue. The semi-equips will be hit harder than the semis. Every devaluation increases the cost of AMAT's equipment, and makes it harder for Asean companies to get capital. The affected countries buy a greater fraction of the the world's semi-equipment (50%, I think), than the fraction of semiconductors they consume (not sure of that number. 25%?) Will the economic chaos reach the point where a lot of East Asian fabs quit producing? They depend on a lot of imported materials. A few months ago, Korean fabs slowed production briefly because they couldn't get import credit to buy raw materials that couldn't be made locally. Is this about to happen on a much larger scale? Is this how the global overcapacity problem is going to be solved?

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (5770)	6/10/1998 8:32:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Respond to of 10921

<< I think that the buying opportunity in semi stocks may be around a while >> Looks like I came out of the box a little early, but I'm not trying to time this too closely. Almost every Asian stock market got hammered, and I mean HAMMERED, again last night. The Nikkei and Hang Seng are once again in free fall. Anyone following the situation knows the strain that this is going to put on the Japanese banks, and ultimately, the ability of semi fabs in Korea, Japan, Singapore etc. to purchase new equipment. Jess, I'll tell you, of everything you mentioned, the biggest worry to me is Chinese devaluation of the yuan. I don't see how they can avoid it if the yen keeps sinking, and it's going to crush Korea and Japan's "recovery" efforts.. I bought a little KLAC at 28 and I think I'm going to halt my buying plans and go back into hibernation for a week or two, to see what China does.