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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Medisco who wrote (8826)	6/10/1998 12:10:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 11555

IDT has to press the foot to the floor-board to make those plans a reality. The WinChip I was a good design for the sub-$1000 market last year but failed to ramp up in Mhz or quantity. IDT said that they pretty well met their road-map for production of quantity of WC I. That doesn't quite jive with what I remember about expectations from conference calls. And I know they didn't meet the expectations for Mhz ramp. The 200 Mhz WC I should have been history by late last year except for marked down product targeted toward the upgrade market. In any case, the production strategy was either flawed or off course. There SHOULD BE reason to think that IDTI is much further down the experience curve and facilities ramp and is now ready to REALY DELIVER rather than just pretend to be in the market. I'm phrasing this post in a way to point out what is investor's attitude toward IDT - "enough with the promises and plans already, show us you can follow through." The problem with looking at what IDT says they have scheduled for delivery - such as the 400 Mhz WC II+, is that IDT hasn't lived up to past promises for delivery of WC I at 240-266 Mhz and at 100K plus per month. When and IF investors see that the company is delivering the WC II or WC II+ at rates of 150K+ per month, confidence in the projections will be greatly improved and the stock price will respond. ----------- On the positive side of things; The bad news from LSCC and increased concerns about Asia and a general PC market over-supply and downturn have had little effect on IDTI's price. Many of the markets for IDT's specialty memories are among the fastest growth segments of the entire electronics industry - iTelephony, ATM, data switches, etc. at 40%+ growth rates despite problems in Asia. Although the devaluation of Asian currencies and money flow problems have contributed to the glut of cheap products coming into the US, (Seattle, Portland, San Francisco & L.A. report a 38% increase in imports from Asian countries over last year), IDTI's primary areas of business are not effected that much. Also, IDT benefits from cheaper assembly. IDT sells only a very small percentage of product into Asian markets. The problem (Asia downturn & over-supply) is still there but the worst should be over by the end of this quarter. The tech stocks often lead the general market. If the downward momentum in techs leads to a general market decline this time, then the a further correction of 10%-15% is certainly possible. Some cyclicals, such as retail and consumer goods sectors will continue to be favored - they benefit most from lower prices and the strong labor market and consumer spending confidence. Increased worry will likely effect the consumer durables. By the end of summer, I expect the techs to lead the market up. Go IDTI - show us you can do it!