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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sal Milani who wrote (9467)	6/10/1998 6:31:00 PM
From: DaiS	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23519

Sal, I was pessimistic about the number of viagra failures turning to muse only because the spin off effect is slow in coming and all these men were obviously not so desperate to seek professional help before viagra came along. I don't know. I have made some progress with the other question, how many men who try muse stick to it. I built a model of the script data. Please tell me if you think the assumptions of this model are wrong. I took all the data since muse was introduced and trimmed off the viagra period and the few early weeks of muse to give a 52 week period. Total: news=653177 repeats=199503 Now check, I assumed that every man who tried muse would take up 1 new script. If he decided to continue he would then get another prescription from his doctor in which the first script written down on the piece of paper would be treated by the pharmacist as a new and K others written down would be repeats. When this was finished he would return to his doc for another and so on. I assumed that the first script for each man would be a six pack, and that each man recruited as a regular user would use P packs per year. Thus P=2 would be sex once a month, P=10 sex a little more often than once a week. I can change the model if I'm wrong. I used the model to predict the % of men who try muse that are recruited as regular users, given P, K, and the above totals. N is number of men trying muse, predicted by model. These are the results. Tabulated is % recruitment P=2 P=5 P=10 P=20 N K=1 88 22 10 5 454,000 K=2 54 14 6 3 553,000 K=3 45 11 5 2 587,000 The results tell me that those who boldly claim, like I did, that not many men are being recruited could be wrong, the value for % recruitment is very sensitive to the parameters of the model. It could be much greater than 10%, if men have sex between once a week and once a month. It appears that the viagra insurers will pay for sex twice a week. I think that men lie and exaggerate the frequency with which they have sex - I saw some evidence for this. DaiS