Robert, the WSJ article probably got its information from
DiskTrend whose summary follows: note you may have to
decrease your viewing font size to size properly..
businesswire.com
( BW)(DISK/TREND) Hard Disk Drive Industry Boosts Drive Capacities, Cuts
Price Per Megabyte, and Shipments Grow To New Levels
Business Editors/Technology Writers
MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 10, 1998--Tough competition in the
rigid disk drive industry, combined with rapid advances in magnetic recording technology, is delivering
ever increasing value to disk drive buyers. The average price per megabyte for all disk drives shipped
in 1997 was below 10 cents, according to the new 1998 DISK/TREND Report on rigid disk drives,
and the 1998 average price is expected to fall below 5 cents per megabyte. By comparison, the
industry's average price per megabyte 10 years ago was over $11.00.
Rigid disk drive worldwide shipments are expected to be up 16.9% in 1998, with 152.6 million
drives, climbing to 232.5 million drives in 2001. One of the reasons for the profit squeeze several
major disk drive manufacturers are currently experiencing can be seen in the lower rate of increase for
sales revenues, up only an estimated 7.9% in 1998. The industry's forecasted 1998 sales revenues of
$34.2 billion will increase to $38.7 billion in 2001, an average annual increase of only 4.2%.
Non-U.S. disk drive manufacturers have been growing faster during 1997-98 than the U.S.
industry leaders, especially in selling drives in the "OEM" market to computer system manufacturers.
Non-U.S. manufacturers captured 22.7% of 1997 worldwide disk drive sales revenues, with their
share projected to rise to 30% in 2001. Most U.S. manufacturers have programs to limit their loss of
market share by accelerating new product availability and countering aggressive price competition
with lower cost drives. The drive manufacturers with the largest 1997 market share increases for
noncaptive disk drives were IBM, Fujitsu, Samsung Electronics and Maxtor.
Here are other highlights from the 1998 DISK/TREND Report on rigid disk drives:
-- "Captive" disk drives, produced and sold by manufacturers of
computer systems, hold a smaller share of worldwide sales
revenues each year, down from 24.3% in 1996, to 19.9% in 1997, to
an estimated 16.6% in 1998. IBM, with a boost from its growing
noncaptive drive sales, became the 1997 world-wide leader in
overall sales revenues, with 23.9%. Seagate Technology, shipping
only noncaptive drives, had declining disk drive sales revenues
in 1997 and dropped to second place, at 23.1%. Quantum and
Western Digital, each with all noncaptive drives, held 15.5% and
13.3%, respectively.
-- The average disk drive capacity moves higher each year. In 1997,
2 to 3 gigabyte drives were shipped in higher quantities than any
other group. In 1998, 3 to 5 gigabytes drives have assumed
shipment leadership, and by 2001 the lead will be captured by
drives in the 20-40 gigabyte range.
-- The new DISK/TREND Report also breaks down shipments by computer
platform, with groups for "desktop" drives used with personal
computers, "mobile" drives used with notebook computers, and
"server" drives typically used with mainframe or network file
servers, plus high performance workstations. The breakdown shows
that the 152.6 million unit shipments forecasted for 1998 will be
75.4% desktop drives, 12.1% mobile drives, and 12.4% server
drives.
-- The disk drive industry's short product life cycles and extremely
competitive nature continue to take a toll, especially on
companies with small market shares. 59 companies manufactured
rigid disk drives at the beginning of the 1990's, but in 1998
only 20 active manufacturers remain, a net reduction of two from
the previous year.
-- The market for removable disk cartridge drives continues to
increase, with an estimated 2.8 million drives in 1998, growing
to a forecasted total of 6.2 million in 2001. Five manufacturers
are now active in the market, with a variety of 5.25 inch, 3.5
inch and 2.5 inch drives, for publishing, multimedia, video
editing and other expanding applications.
In addition to individual revenue and unit shipment projections
for rigid disk drives in nine product groups, the DISK/TREND Report,
now in its 22nd year, provides statistics on noncaptive selling
prices, competitive market shares of manufacturers, and a review of
data storage technologies. The report also contains basic product
specifications on 315 disk drive models and profiles on the 20
existing manufacturers of rigid disk drives, plus start-up firms and
recent industry dropouts.
The new study on the worldwide rigid disk drive industry was
released as part of the 1998 DISK/TREND Report, a detailed annual
business review of the worldwide disk drive industry published by
DISK/TREND, Inc. Separate reports on removable data storage and
optical disk drives will be released in July and August, and a study
on disk drive arrays will be published in October.
The 1998 DISK/TREND Report on rigid disk drives is priced at
$2,875. Subscriptions to the complete 1998 DISK/TREND Report,
including the reports on disk drive arrays and removable data storage,
plus the individual reports on optical and rigid disk drives, are
available at the discounted price of $7,616 for the complete set by
contacting DISK/TREND, Inc., 1925 Landings Drive, Mountain View, CA
94043, or through the company's Worldwide Web site, www.disktrend.com.
For additional information, see the attached shipment summary, or
call Jim Porter or Bob Katzive, 650-961-6209.
Rigid Disk Drive Unit Shipments
Summary By Disk Diameter
Forecast
Worldwide 1997 --------------------------------------------
Unit Shipments 1998 1999 2000 2001
shipments --------- -------- ------- ------- -------
(000)
Over 5.25
Inch 1.5 -- -- -- --
5.25 Inch 5,628.3 6,234.0 6,810.0 6,630.0 6,460.0
3.5 Inch 109,647.2 127,938.8 148,335.0 171,650.0 197,270.0
2.5 Inch 15,018.0 18,246.4 21,340.0 24,710.0 28,450.0
1.8 Inch 203.1 184.5 230.0 275.0 310.0
--------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
Total,
All Groups 130,498.1 152,603.7 176,715.0 203,265.0 232,490.0
+25.6% +16.9% +15.8% +15.0% +14.4%
Notes: 3.5" totals include 3" and 2.5" server platform drives.
2.5" totals include 3" mobile platform drives.
Source: 1998 DISK/TREND Report
Rigid Disk Drive Sales Revenues
Summary By Drive Capacity
Sales revenues Forecast
in millions of 1997 ----------------------------------------
U.S. Dollars Revenues 1998 1999 2000 2001
--------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Disk cartridge
drives 346.1 657.2 916.8 1,102.2 1,234.6
FIXED DISK DRIVES
Less than 1
Gigabyte 492.9 98.3 46.1 31.3 28.0
1-2 Gigabytes 6,687.9 582.4 99.3 34.5 42.0
2-3 Gigabytes 10,108.3 5,082.5 1,435.3 344.4 117.3
3-5 Gigabytes 8,701.3 11,970.1 6,260.1 1,822.5 471.6
5-10 Gigabytes 4,956.2 11,283.4 14,468.4 8,201.5 3,110.0
10-20 Gigabytes 215.6 4,114.4 11,928.3 16,735.4 11,477.4
20-40 Gigabytes 228.0 241.9 1,675.4 9,236.1 16,040.6
More than 40
Gigabytes -- 199.1 264.5 1,113.3 6,150.9
-------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Total Revenues 31,736.3 34,229.3 37,094.2 38,621.2 38,672.4
Source: 1998 DISK/TREND Report
--30--azs/sf* slw/sf
CONTACT: DISK/TREND, Inc.
James N. Porter/Robert H. Katzive, 650/961-6209
www.disktrend.com
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