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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: MikeM54321 who wrote (4364)6/10/1998 8:59:00 PM
From: Otimer  Respond to of 9980
 
F.Y.I.

Bank of Montreal's Johnson on Asia Currencies: Currency Comment

Bank of Montreal's Johnson on Asia Currencies: Currency Comment

Chicago, June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Earl Johnson, international economist at the
Bank of Montreal, comments on the implications of the weak yen for the
currencies of China and other Asian nations after the yen fell to a seven-year
low of 141.67 to the dollar.

If we go to 150 yen or weaker, you've got a situation that's almost
intolerable in Asia,'' Johnson said. ''There's more talk about the (Chinese)
yuan devaluing. If the yuan devalues, the Hong Kong dollar goes. If that goes,
you've got another round of 15 to 20 percent devaluation throughout the
region. Suddenly you've got a very serious situation.''

The yen's 7.7 percent slump against the dollar this year makes Japan's exports
cheaper and puts pressure on its neighboring trade rivals to let their
currencies weaken to boost their own exports. To keep that from happening, the
U.S. may be forced to sell dollars to lift the yen, he said.

I think the U.S. can't let the dollar go to 160 or 170 (yen). It's just too
horrible a scenario if we let the Chinese devalue and the whole area goes down
the tubes. That's a scenario we can't let happen.''

The U.S. may step in between 145 and 150 yen and say, 'We just can't let this
happen. There's nothing economically in the next month or two that's going to
change (Japan's) situation.

Either there's intervention or the yen continues to collapse,'' Johnson said.

16:30:43 06/10/1998

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