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To: herb will who wrote (57755)6/11/1998 8:36:00 AM
From: Francis Chow  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 186894
 
"I don't see any real (lasting) upturn till late in 1999"
. . . By the way, it is June 10th already and no change in Intel's guidance for the 2nd quarter.


The key word is lasting there are too many negatives for the current signs of upturn to be a good base for a real return to strength. Large structural changes are needed in Asia's financial sector. These changes will take time; you know, Rome was not built in a day. :-)



To: herb will who wrote (57755)6/11/1998 12:40:00 PM
From: Tony Viola  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
Herb, it's still very early in the "warning season" and we are far from out of the woods yet. Below is from Briefing, comparing, on a per week basis, 1Q98 warnings vs. 2Q, so far, and what happened in the rest of 1Q's warning season. Note that Feb. lines up with May, March with June, and April with July. This was a matrix, or spreadsheet on Briefing, turned into a list here. I think you can get the jist of it. OK, we are in the June 8 - 12 week, and have had 10 tech and 16 'other' type company warnings. June 15 - 19 week, and further out, are tbd. The equivalent weeks in 1Q, like March 16 - 20, etc., had substantial numbers of warnings.

Q2 Week
Tech
Other
Q1 Week
Tech
Other
May 18-22
6
4
Feb 16-20
1
0
May 25-29
5
9
Feb 23-27
3
3
Jun 1-5
9
9
Mar 2-6
7
0
Jun 8-12
10
16
Mar 9-13
9
7
Jun 15-19

Mar 16-20
12
6
Jun 22-26

Mar 23-27
16
16
Jun 29-Jul 3

Mar 30-Apr 3
28
12
Jul 6-10

Apr 6-10
10
1
Jul 13-17

Apr 13-17
7
3
Jul 20-24

Apr 20-24
1
0
Jul 27-31

Apr 27-May 1
1
2

Tony