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To: marginmike who wrote (11366)6/10/1998 10:53:00 PM
From: marginmike  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152472
 
I checked their web page. Nokia and Q are their CDMA big customers. Sawtek is saying that 4Q orders declined. Whats going on. Is qualcom production slowing? Remember this is for the 4th quarter. This is quite troublesome. Is this caused by motorolla delay of CDMA? Anybody have thoughts.



To: marginmike who wrote (11366)6/11/1998 9:22:00 AM
From: Gregg Powers  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
 
Mike:

I don't mean to pick on you, but there seems to be a pattern of "shoot-from-the-hip" inaccuracies to your posts that suggest either (a) you don't bother to read (or understand) the facts in front of your and (b) that you make no effort to understand the truth for yourself. I presume, therefore, that you couch such posts in such a negative fashion so that I (or others) will feel compelled to quickly do the work to rebut your conclusion. I, for one, do not take kindly to such manipulation.

The Sawtek press release plainly indicates Asian currency translation as the first issue (note that comments such as these are typically listed in order of materiality), followed by reduced prices for GSM-related components, followed by reduced forecasted demand for CDMA-base station and handset filters from "several of the company's customers".

A two-second perusal of the SAWS 10K (available to all on EDGAR) shows that the top four customers, in order of importance, are Ericsson, Lucent, Motorola and Qualcomm. So much for QC being their "only customer". Moreover, I spoke with Qualcomm yesterday, when I saw the Sawtek news and management pointed out that its difficult to extrapolate ANYTHING about Qualcomm's business (or MOT, ERICY or LU) from one component vendor's experience. QC is constantly adding second and third sources and will shift orders around for a myriad of reasons including price, quality or service. It is possible, for example, that SAWS is losing share to Asian component vendors simply on price. Another point I would proffer is that MOT, which had been trying to introduce its own CDMA handset, did make an investment in Pantech (a Korean CDMA handset vendor) and it is quite possible that MOT is shifting its production further from the U.S. to Korea (through Pantech). That could account for a change in vendor and a reduced forecasted demand for SAWS components by MOT.

Gregg