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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fred woodall who wrote (20113)	6/10/1998 11:04:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

reason we will be 20-40%higher by october. first, pretty simple is the whole group is way oversold being down probably30%in the last month. this quarter will be rough it always is historical weakest quarter for eps and stocks but smart money is looking to come in heavy as october quarter will be stronger(might not) but investors want to own tech going into christmas. second, everybody overreacts to semi stocks but first these companies are finacially unbelievable strong with healthy book value 's and plenty of cash and will stay profitable. look at lscc or klac tsemf, forget they are semi companies but these companies trading relative to their book, loaded with cash in industry that no doubt you will have spending on equipment on simple technology fear that you will be left behind. its human nature. about asia, well people are misinformed as usual because asia pacific sales grew 4%this month sequentially and now have showed two months of growth. your buying companies at or around intrinsic book value that have generated hundreds of million in cash the last 5 years-that have huge upward earning potential. look at klac, this is on top of my head, thecompany is valued at 1.5-2bill. they have 700million in cash-no debt-this year will earn 170 million dollers doing around 1billion in sales with a monopoly in their business. thats why it is compelling because forget they are semi's, these are great fundamental companies that areway undervalued.klac was 40-42 a month ago. it is now 27-28. i will be right again but this month will be bumpy.

To: fred woodall who wrote (20113)	6/11/1998 1:15:00 AM
From: akidron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

the figure quoted by the Japanese Govt, during the last attempt to prop up the Nikkei was that the major banks become technically insolvent below 14,000... I think this is because at that time the assetts would have shrunk below the min assttt to borrowing ratio allowed by law.... I don't know if this has changed but it will only take one big bank to go bust ant this juncture to really get thing going --- I KEEP READING ON THIS THREAD THAT THE DOWNSIDE RISK IS MITIGATED AT THESE LEVELS ---- why? --- the situation is far worse than in '95 yet AMAT trades at 2.5x that low....