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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Step1 who wrote (1106)	6/11/1998 3:27:00 AM
From: Zardoz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

INFLATION AND THE MONEY SUPPLY: "Monetarists believe that the rate of growth of the money supply is entirely in the the control of the central bank, through it's ability to print and destroy money.... The money supply is a critical indicator of infaltion." CSC JUNE 1997 What isn't mentioned is how M2 inflation causes currency inflation. And how currency inflation can mask CPI {USA} and gets exported in the form of commodity inflation to secondary countries. That in turn causes producer prices to increase in the secondary economy creating reduced earnings. And this causes further errosion in the secondary economy in the form of increasing debt, with no substantion increase in the ability of the secondary Gov to increase taxes. This causes currency deflation relative to the remianing world currencies... Which, in a positive feedback system will continue. AKA: Asian problems come from the increase in M2 in the USA. And only when the change in M2 rate stabilizes, will the Asain problems be over. So with this in mind I wish to once again predict that this is WAY far from over, and will end in a total collaspse of the US markets {between 20-55%} and that the nikeii will drop to 11,000. As time get closer, the exacts dates can be estimated more closely. Previously I predicted this: Message 4435277 Message 4494906 Message 3883314 Message 3927768 Message 4081187 Message 4094001 Since that time things have been more clearer. 1) The Dow will reach a new high of 9300-9500 by June 25 2) The nikkei will float around 14,500-15,500 till than. 3) Hong kong will deteriate to 6800 slowly. 4) The yen will float to 155 Yen/USD 5) Around June 30 you'll see a full fledge currency attack on the YEN, and it will drop to 165-200 range. 6) This will cause a large dip in the nikkei {to 11,000+/-500} 7) This will demise the Hong Kong market, riots will abound. 8) The FTSE will open down 10% due to Japan expose. 9) this will cause panic in the Europe market 10) This will cause the US Governent to sell Dollars and buy Pounds/Marks 11) People in USA seeing a gold spike, and a decreasing UK markets will pull their money out of Mutual funds. Which will cause a markets panic in the USA. Name me one bull market that HADN'T ended in a crash. And it's all due to Greenspan keynsian attitude.