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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (5801)	6/11/1998 12:16:00 PM
From: Paul Dieterich	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Semiconductor Capital Equipment: Morgan Stanley Dean Witter analyst Jay Deahna expects 1998 semiconductor capital spending to decline more sharply than previously forecast; Mr. Deahna expects spending to decline 20%-to-22% from a previous estimate of 12%-to-14%; cites much lower-than-expected utilization rates..... [from Briefing.com]

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (5801)	6/11/1998 12:25:00 PM
From: Paul Dieterich	Respond to of 10921

May book-to-bill data for the semiconductor equipment industry is slated to be released June 16. biz.yahoo.com

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (5801)	6/11/1998 7:43:00 PM
From: Jess Beltz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Robert, I think the answer to your question about the SEA regional currencies is no in the near term (say the next 6 months) for two major reasons: (1) as I've indicated ad nauseum during the last several days, there is a very strong linkage between the yen and the other regional currencies, and the direction of the yen is South. (2) Even without the slide in the yen, there would have been strong downward pressure on the value of the SEA currencies anyway, due to extremely foolish fiscal management during crisis last Fall. That is, except for one bank run here in Hong Kong, while there were runs on the currencies, there were no runs on the banks here. In spite of the ever increasing amount of bad debt they were carrying, still, no bank runs. The reason that liquidity on the part of the banks was maintained, and thus no runs, was that the banks in this part of the world (excluding Hong Kong which is managed on a very sound basis by and large) were simply printing money as needed. One cannot embark on a policy like this without inviting heavy inflation, and I maintained as early as last January (before the real slide in the yen began) that there would be heavy inflation this Summer due to that kind of management. The deterioration of the yen only exacerbates an already aggravated problem. You are right in your assessment that this has to have a good effect on exporters in SE Asia, and clearly the trade balances with the West should increase as the price of those goods declines and they become better value against the dollar. I also think that longer term, beyond the six month horizon, the currencies will probably bottom out and recovery will return. If you were looking for a regional stock play, I would say the very exporters you refer to would be the best bet, since their current stock price may be getting waxed with the rest of the Asian markets, while their fundamentals are very strong. Another interesting play might be an American firm who benefits from the turmoil like Pier 1 Imports. As far as taking a position in the yen right now, I wouldn't touch it on the long side, but think there are many nibbling at it on the short side. Good luck, brother (sincerely!) jess

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (5801)	6/12/1998 6:09:00 AM
From: Jess Beltz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

My gloom deepened today. I know you'll all be glad to hear that. I spent about a half hour talking with my friend Takeshi Yamada today right after he'd finished his interview (about the economic situation in Japan) for a local television station, and while the yen was crossing 144 to the dollar. We talked about the fundamentals, but more illuminating was the other things we discussed. What I have described in the last few days is the SE Asian scenario that is playing out that I believe will inexorably destroy Japan's entire banking system. He pretty much agreed with that. What's more depressing is this: I'm not sure that even Alan Greenspan could stop what's happening here, and I have repeatedly stated that Hashimoto has got to go, because he has shown himself to be a political creature tied to maintaining the status quo in banking in Japan. But that doesn't matter. There is NO ONE to replace him. Nobody. Not in the political arena, not in the economic arena. Japan doesn't have a Reuben or Greenspan. As Merton Miller pointed out in January, the people who run the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) have virtually NO economic training. They're a bunch of lawyers. Takeshi said there is NO ONE in power with the economic skills to deal with the situation, and no one who has those skills is in a position of power. At the precise moment when definite concerted action is absolutely essential, there is nobody to provide any direction whatsoever. You might feel that yesterday's slide in the DOW was an overreaction. I don't think Wall Street has reacted enough (although it might be getting around to it.) Takeshi and I both agreed 100% that what's happening now is much worse here than what happened in October. Then, there was a lot of panic selling due to some speculative currency attacks and some market pressures in response to rising interest rates to counter those attacks. What's happening now is the actual manifestation (into asset prices) of the real fundamentals of the economies here, particularly in Japan. The veneer of denial is slipping away. For what it's worth, Takeshi said he pulled his money out of Japanese banks some time ago. He's 100% in cash in an account at Citibank. And what about Taiwan, and China... jess. PS - God I'll I be glad to get out of here!