Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (2035)	6/11/1998 1:09:00 PM
From: Honest Abe	Respond to of 4676

I'm a lurker on this thread; with my low technical expertise in bt I don't feel I have much to offer. Sincere thanks to all those who put in their thoughts. Just thought I'd give my view on why I'm an investor in ISIP. I don't think that this year or next year, etc., this stock will do that great. I wanted to make a long term bet on a stock that has the potential - over the very long term - to make me very rich if it works out, and if it doesn't work out, I'll still get by fine. I have invested a substantial amount in ISIP. If the technologies continue to progress and achieve success, you will see a slow rise in the stock. Only when major market drugs are introduced will it be up 10X or 100X, and that, if it happens at all, is years away. But, calling the moment when that magic news comes out or when Wall Street recognizes its full potential is perhaps as hard as ISIP finding that magic blockbuster drug or class of drugs. So here I sit, content with the sense of antisense, and wait.

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (2035)	6/12/1998 8:44:00 AM
From: sds	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4676

Peter, you're probably a little too optimistic.... CMV isn't a $100 million market. Maybe worldwide, but that would be pushing it. Also, Isis isn't going to get 100% of that market. I see about $30 million potential for Isis if things go well. 2302 won't be all that succesful in its Crohn's applications. I have no doubts that it will work well in Crohn's, but this is another limited disease application. Maybe $50 million (optimistic). RA -- I don't think its going to work -- $0 million UC -- I don't think its going to matter. The drug may work, but it will have to be nearly perfect to convince patients to take it instead of corrective surgery -- $5 - 10 million Psoriasis -- This doesn't seem to be going anywhere fast. I think they'll come up with something that might work, but I think they've given up on the primary/curative therapy. $10 million. Kidney transplant -- I have no clue. X million Cancer -- I'm begining to doubt these will be a blockbuster. This is looking like an adjunct to chemotherapy. Nothing wrong with that -- you can make lots 'o' money as part of chemo cocktail. $10 million to $200 million (based on efficacy). Adding that all up, I'm no longer too impressed with Isis's portfolio. It seems as though all of these antisense drugs start off as a "potential blockbuster" and then end up as a "valuable addition" to a treatment regimen. Now, while agreements like the Merck deal are interesting, Isis will not be a blockbuster based on these kinds of transactions. I'm getting closer and closer to that exit decision. AA, MZ (and any others) -- I've talked with you two for quite a while -- what is your feeling on this one? sds