To: Larry S. who wrote (14744 ) 6/12/1998 6:26:00 AM From: Ron McKinnon Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 53068
Larry >>> Bill, yes it is getting scary I'm not sure that we are at the "scary" point yet Old guys like us have seen SCARY, this aint it (yet) No extreme panic No capitulation blow off No bodies trying to take flight out of 48 story, $5mm NY condos We may or not get there, I have no idea Last night I ran the DOW charts They are not the market but the masses perceive that index as the market Looking at each one, many (exceptions being defensive issues--like MCD WMT) are right on the edge of a chart cliff, just holding some level of support, are at an important moving average price So, the next leg "might" be a real drop if they do not hold or turn As most of you know I take a short term view of most of my trades; so tend to look at short term charts If others do that also I might suggest that you elongate your time horizon A good example is the oil service sector Many have thought that they are at low price levels That they are oversold They are too cheap Well, try this; run charts on a 2 or 5 year time frame That may speak volumes about when/if to buy I am not a bear Not yelling fire Not saying a "crash" is close Just thinking that this is a time to be reflective The flip side is the possibility that the market or single issues may well turn up with a vengence If/when that happens cash buying power will be helpful to jump on things This is not a time to be fully invested let alone on or deep into margin Am not calling today's action, have not seen the pre open futures yet; but, it is a summer Friday My plan is to be light over the weekend; want to enjoy and not fret out holdings waiting for 9:30 Monday I'm only holding a few issues right now INTC JPM RN-dumb move going in yesterday, and TLXN which are tying up any amount of cash Most of those may go this morning, before the afternoon low volume whatever happens We are going to see the Indians this weekend, right not the BJ table offers more certain odds than some equities