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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (47209)	6/11/1998 3:23:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176388

Hello Chuzz- Dell holding strong in this 82-85 range...reminds me a lot of March/April when Dell pendulumed between 63-67 for much of the month, before the runup....(Even though I keep admitting short-term predictions are a fools game, and I would never trade based on it....) in these low volume, boring trading range days, I like to become a resident (in my own residence <<GG>>) short-term analyst (after all, I have to put up with the goobers CNBC keeps putting on...) Things still look good for the summer rally scenario that I posted about 3 weeks ago.....Interest rates look really good/Greenspan has confirmed that he - being the boss- will not raise rates due to Asia (even if some of the regional guys get quoted every now and then a little differently).....After the trading range of the last 2 months, the institutions will wake up within the next 6 weeks and decide that it is time for the Dow to go to 9500 or so, and the Nasdaq back above 1900.....I think we have to (earliest) get through warning season in late June, (latest) around Dell's shareholder meeting in mid-July to see Dell pop up above 100...... It wouldn't surprise me to see Dell bottom out one more time in the mid-high 70's in the next 2/3 weeks before the move.... Remember my conversations with dear old Lucretius (he of long Japan, long XAU)...since then Japan has become even more anemic, and the XAU has fallen from 84 to 68.....about a period of 5 weeks or so....Hope he got out after our convo.... On the Nasdaq web site, I saw that the analyst's consensus EPS is up to .46.........This is a 56% EPS increase year-over-year......I haven't heard this get much play in the press, but this is a significant increase over what I saw in March.....I think .46 would be a very good quarter, .47 or above would be a great quarter, but given the higher expectation from analysts, I think it will be difficult to beat the current consensus by more than .01 or .02 cents this quarter....JP posted that Dell made 43.57 cents in the past quarter.....47.57 (or 48 cents) would mean a 9.2% increase in EPS over the previous quarter, which would be truly outstanding given the curent environment......It appears to me that it will be easier for Dell to beat quarterly earnings estimates (by a wider margin) in the 3rd and 4th quarters, given the cyclical nature of larger growth in the 2nd half for PC, less inventory in the channel, etc... Finally, the 1.2 billion unit number in 10 years is truly amazing.....Just think, even if MD is wrong by 50%, that's 600 million units up for grabs.........I think that with this in mind, Dell should continue to prosper quite well in the future....