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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lazlo Pierce who wrote (9928)	6/11/1998 5:53:00 PM
From: Roger A. Babb	Respond to of 18691

David, thanks for the cpq news. I am short DELL, but have no position now in cpq, having sold my long cpq position some time back.

To: Lazlo Pierce who wrote (9928)	6/11/1998 7:10:00 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Respond to of 18691

David, I'm actually surprised we haven't had a more significant warning from Compaq or Intel. This would be about the right timing, and the quarter is definitely turning out to be worse than expected in many market segments. Home computers aren't selling much and shipments in May were extremely low, as everybody waits for Win98 machines at the end of June. I've got to wonder if Intel might do it after the Friday close again. Maybe tomorrow or next week? I know lots of people are saying "they announced there won't be any warnings," but if you read the actual comments it basically comes out as the spokesperson saying last week that "we haven't scheduled any announcements or conferences at this time." (When's the last time they "pre-announced" or "scheduled" and earnings warning?) I think something nasty is going to hit. Not shorting right now, but my Intel holdings are still hedged with July puts. mg

To: Lazlo Pierce who wrote (9928)	6/12/1998 4:28:00 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

<< Roger, CPQ warned (slightly), but in forward looking statements were ambiguous as well. Though its company specific, in this market it should effect all the boxmakers >> Why should this affect all the boxmakers? Compaq's problems are well known. GTW just said they are comfortable with estimates and they have been making some pretty bullish statements. DELL just said a week or two ago that business still looked great. DELL has already proven that troubles in Asia are helping them out by providing them with cheaper components. Explain to me what CPQ said that was so negative, and then explain to me why DELL should go down because of it.