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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Judy who wrote (18588)6/11/1998 7:19:00 PM
From: Logain Ablar  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 50167
 
Hi Judy, Ike and Thread:

On ASND, todays action with it being added to the S&P did not bode well. It held up but only because of the addition. If memory serves me (and it does but unfortunately my knowledge base is limited) last years problem was when the CEO indicated they'd make #'s but they ended up having a problem with sales in Asia (that problem may be back with currency issues).

Ike, @ 140 yen (going to 160 yen soon, although not so soon if there is intervention but still going there) to the $$ there will be a lot of problems with companies that export. I remember Jack Welch a few years ago (when the yen was around 90ish) stating companies need to be competitive when the yen drops (I hope his sigma program is kicking in by now to reduce costs because companies do not have pricing elasticity and they have to lower costs to improve margins and profits.

The FED is still restrictive (a 5.5% rate with 1.5% inflation, 4 points is historically high) but long term rates are still heading down. Hey remember I posted we'll have the inverted yield. Looks like it will happen unless the gov't screws up spending or goes to war.

@ 5.5% on the long bond and I'll be able to refinance.

Hope all is we'll on the west coast and in Paris.

Tim




To: Judy who wrote (18588)6/11/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: Nancy  Respond to of 50167
 
Judy,

shall we refer to the last trough of semi sector (summer/fall of 1996) to gauge how far down they might go if things remain ugly for 2-3 more quarter ?

Last trough was caused by overcapacity - this time is combination of overcapacity, lower demand ? (stagnant growth in demand)

ASMLF warned.