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To: thomas hayden who wrote (12973)	6/11/1998 10:02:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

(AMAT down in after hours) Thomas: Yup if INTC warns that would be a heavy blow and that would certainly take out LSI. On the good side, as mentioned a few weeks ago, that would have to be the low for this year. Question is whether I'll be solvent when that happens... However someone on the AMAT thread said it may be related to an ASMLF warning? I think what may be happening with AMAT and gang (other than reality hitting home) is that the Taiwan foundries (their last bastion of spending) are seeing business vanish over the last few weeks and months. I therefore expect them to scale back some spending. With them now quiet that pretty much means no one is buying equipment. As for LSI - we just have to see. They usually preannounce in the 2nd month of the quarter. Since they have not I do not expect them to do so this time. I think LSI is lucky because networking is strong and STBs have come back this year and DCAM and DVD starting from a small base are not affected by Asia or whatever. I do have a concern about the strong Yen putting a damper on revenue growth but then again the statement made was 8-10% above the semi-average for the year. Presumably the semi-average for the year includes currency effects as well. So maybe Corrigan will be right after all. If LSI can do 8-10% above the average we are really set. The question however must now shift to Q3. What is happening in the rest of semi-world must give some pause. But Gruntal usually does a check on LSI's business every 3 months and Mona reiterated strong buy - she just lowered estimates on virtually all the other semi-stocks she covers BTW (except for LSI). Chaplinsky said he called and the order rate remains strong. Kurlak's upgrade. Note that these same analysts are not speaking in glowing terms of any of the other semis! Of course what everyone wants to know is the stock price and not the underlying business - and that I really do not know. If INTC warns we should go down but wouldn't INTC have warned by now - last Q they did so in early March - and the CFO mentioned no change in guidance for this Q as of a few days ago. Anyway... Shane

To: thomas hayden who wrote (12973)	6/11/1998 10:22:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

(AMAT down in after hours continued) Did a bit of checking. ASMLF did warn: Shares of ASM Lithography Inc. (ASMLF) is poised to fall Friday after the chip-equipment manufacturer said it expects fiscal 1998 earnings to fall below fiscal 1997 results. The company attributed the weak results to overall softness in the capital equipment market and order reductions by Taiwanese customers. In 1997, ASM earned $1.08 a share, and analysts expected approximately $1.52 in fiscal 1998. Last week, CIBC Oppenheimer downgraded the shares to "buy" from "strong buy." Shares closed down 2 15/16 at 34 5/16 ahead of the news. + CPQ will be short 1 c + Aetrium busted today + WFR warned the beat goes on... Maybe it is Taiwan - maybe it is just the fact that when the dominant (such as ASMLF) fall the consensus is that business conditions are really poor and hence even the mighty like AMAT will be affected...