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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Zhao who wrote (5728)	6/12/1998 9:25:00 AM
From: Walter High	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Ed: I think my mistake when I shorted AOL was that I shorted a company that had very clever people working to keep its price high. They managed the news very well and pulled off a number of deals that kept strong support under the price. I see the same thing happening with AMZN and I warn you shorters now that you may be in for a very expensive ride. This is my prediction about what will happen with AMZN. Feel free to throw it back in my face six or twelve months from now if I am wrong. The price may ride up somewhat higher on this squeeze, but will eventually peak and drop back. It may even go as low as 50, but it will settle into a trading range much higher than the 40-45 it was in before. There will then be another 500 messages posted here to the effect of: "This pig has to die" "These thieves should be hung for their deception" and so forth. Then AMZN will announce they are bringing the video catalog online and the stock will take off again. Everyone here will rush to buy puts and find shares to short as the stock soars another 50%, then settles into a trading range higher than before. Nasty messages will be posted while you all roll over your puts and slowly watch them expire. Just when you think the game is about up for AMZN, it will announce a major deal that no one expected. They will move into a wholely new area through a purchase with stock and the market will call the move "bold" "unprecedented" "brilliant" "the marketing paradigm of the future" etc. The stock will soar once again. Or maybe Buffett will suddenly announce that he believes AMZN has the key to the future, then all your puts and shorts will really be dead. The point is: the price can be supported through good timing of news announcements and the constant supply of hope to the investors for a huge payout in the future. Every time you think it is going to fall, AMZN will beat you at your game with a press announcement that causes the stock to rise. You can argue valuation and logic all you want here, while you slowly lose all your money. Don't quit your day jobs guys. You'll need the cash and you won't be retiring as soon as you had hoped if you continue to trade on emotion rather than sense. Walter High