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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (16518)	6/12/1998 7:30:00 AM
From: Clint E.	Respond to of 69122

Hi Harry. I think I answer this and go back to sleep! Cellular subscriber growth is maturing but is still growing(I've heard figures from 18% to 25% so take your pick). In the US, 800MHz carriers are beginning to experience slowdown in subscriber growth but PCS providers are seeing increasing demand due to no-contract, lower-fee, digital, voice clarity, added-features, etc., advertising campaign................So, the market is good. No question about it. The problem with QCOM stays the same as what we talked about in Jan., namely competition from 25 other new players in H/S market and lack of any infrastructure biz. The US market is expected to be the largest CDMA market in the world this year, leaving S. Korea as the 2nd. largest. I've heard sales forecast of ~5M units in the US and ~9M worldwide. Guess what the capacity figure is? 15M. Yes, 15M. Four major Korean mfrs.(Samsung, LGIC, Hundai, and Maxon) are exporting to the US and HK like this is another DRAM market. Obviously, devalued Won helps tremendously. Japanese vendors(Sony, NEC, Fujitsu, Oki, Toshiba, Kyocera) are also working hard to grab a share of the world's market. Japan hasn't taken off yet but with the planned rollout of cdmaOne system by IDO & DDI this year(MOT's biggest cdma contract), Japan should be a huge market in the coming years as well. One of the biggest threats to QCOM is to see these Japanese companies starting to develop their own modem chipsets. Since most of them have a semiconductor manufacturing arm, it won't surprise me a bit to see them do it. QCOM stock will be in 30s by then. Clint